An issue with historic roots, has just woken up from its deep sleep in south Caucasia. Tension (about the Karabakh area) that would create a new conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia has dominated the region for two years. Many things needed to be said on this particular issue, however the region has so much conflict we couldn't get around to discussing this particular one. Since 2014 the military powers had been at conflict with each other from a distance. Yet the issue made the international agenda only when there were deaths.
The ongoing tutelage laws and the crises that bring both regional and global actors against each other, the new plans made on the energy lines, and even the situation created between Russia and Turkey after the Russian plane was downed all have an effect on the recent clashes in Baku and Yerevan in which 50 soldiers died. Yet the internal determinants that have effects on the unsolved issue are of importance too.
The issue is known to have roots in the past century or even the Middle Age according to some. The war between Azerbaijan and Armenia started in 1992, reconciliation could not be achieved by 1994, and although a cease-fire was signed by the two parties, actual peace was not established. The conflict still continues today even though it is not physical. Being situated in the Azerbaijan borders, yet invaded by Armenia, the region resembles that of the Balkans (in terms of ethnicity, religion, geography et cetera) after Yugoslavia was divided.
The Nagorno-Karabakh region was a part of the Azerbaıjan Democratic Republic when it was founded in 1918, and became an autonomous region after Azerbaijan became a part of the Soviet Union in 1922. According to the Azeris; the number of Armenians living in the region during the Soviet era was low, yet increased upon forced migration of the Armenians. The Armenians didn't even accept the already existing autonomous structure. Despite this, the existing status quo situation was always protected. As the dissolution of the Soviet Union neared, the number of Azeris in Nagorno-Karabakh decreased to a quarter of the initial number. During the period Azerbaijan and Armenia declared their independence, Nagorno-Karabakh initially requested to be a protectorate of Armenia and then declared its independence with a referendum. Although this didn't receive notice in the international arena, the chaos in dual-relations continued. The armed conflict turned into close combat in 1992 which tens of thousands of people lost their lives. Armenia invaded Nagorno-Karabakh at the end of the war. Nagorno-Karabakh is one-fifth of Azerbaijan's total area and one-third of Armenia's total area, and has remained in a state of “frozen conflict” ever since.
More than 1 million refugees live in Azerbaijan with a population of 8-9 million. Those people who have fled Nagorno-Karabakh during the Armenian invasion are called “runners/deserters.” As these refugees wait for the fate of their “frozen” refugee crisis, it is possible to say that there is a “frozen” hostility between the Azeri and Armenian people too. The things that happen while they wait for the issue to be resolved indicate that there is no time for “whys” and “hows.” Returning back to the normal times doesn't seem possible after Armenian forces massacred Azerbaijani civilians in Nagorno-Karabakh during the Hocalı Massacre.
The Minsk Group founded as part of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) attempted to, yet was unsuccessful in establishing peace and only gave the issue an international dimension. The co-head of the Minsk Group is France, the U.S. and Russia. Turkey, Germany, Holland, Italy, Portugal, Belarus, Sweden and Finland are members. France's stance on the Armenian issue is clear, and no one can argue that they are impartial; thus by only looking at the co-heads one can understand why the issue has not been resolved at all. Moreover, it is evident they wont ask Armenia to withdraw from the region it has invaded. Although the U.S. tries to portray itself as impartial on this issue, the pressure from the Armenian lobby from within and leaving things completely in Russia's hands shows that it is trying to establish some kind of balance. Russia however, stands close to both countries, but obviously is closer to Armenia. Besides it sells a great deal of guns to both countries. On the other side, it cannot afford to heighten the conflict with Azerbaijan, a country with rich petrol and natural gas resources, and turn Baku into an actor that it can no longer control. The ongoing relation between Azerbaijan and Israel based on petrol and natural gas increases the risk for Russia. Israel is another country that supplies guns to Azerbaijan.
As the unilateral cease-fire was repeatedly violated, Dmitri Medvedev visiting Yerevan and moving onto Baku in order to mediate between the two countries, offered to reduce natural gas prices for Armenia and offered to protect Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Meaning Russia didn't miss the chance to remind of its existence in Caucasia. Settling with the tension dropping for now, Russia is using this issue to tell the other countries that it is not a sitting target.
