The anti-Daesh coalition formed in September 2014 under the leadership of the U.S. was faced by another “de facto” coalition along with the “joint operation center” Russia formed in September 2015 with Iran, Iraq and Syria in Baghdad as it was landing in the field in Syria. This coalition was apparently fighting Daesh, but like the other, in this new generation war, it was providing air support to its proxy groups on the ground. Just as the U.S. met with the Democratic Union Party (PYD) while seeking for a secular power in Syria, Russia started to provide air support to all force, including the PYD, s joining the Shiite line it supports. Daesh has been a shield for a while now; those who have been involved in the Syrian war since the beginning but have not been able to take the risk of being included, are trying to shape the field in the direction they desire with Daesh as their excuse. This is one of the reasons why Turkey's alliances avoided its demands such as a “no-fly zone,” “safe zone.” It probably went unnoticed because its first intention was really to fight Daesh, but another anti-Daesh coalition was formed in September 2014 under the leadership of France. Twenty-six countries had decided to provide military support under French leadership to the Iraqi government in the war against Daesh. The coalition leader France had carried out its airstrikes specific to Iraq until the Paris attacks in November. Just as France carried out its Daesh operations alone in the coalition under its own leadership, the U.S. did the same in the coalition under its own leadership, as did Russia. In other words, the country that forms a coalition seeks approval from its participants, sometimes provides logistic support, but joining the operation is not a condition; its finds legitimacy with its allies and does its own job itself.
This week, another similar coalition was formed 34 Muslim countries (let us mention that the Iraq-Iran-Syria line are not included) under the leadership of Saudi Arabia. The coalition's statement that they will be fighting all terrorist organizations, not only Daesh, although seems like a memorized line, it is important in terms of conjuncture. Because following the agreement reached in the Vienna meetings, the BMGK which has failed for years to make a decision concerning Syria due to vetoes by Russia and China, reached reconciliation on Friday. The BMGK decision that made a call the sides in Syria to start talks and declare cease-fire, came after the formation of a “terrorist list” suggested by Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov in Vienna was delegated to and prepared in Jordan. This black list, as mentioned on Friday in the Yeni Şafak news story by Yılmaz Bilgen, does not stop at Daesh or al-Nusra, it covers 100 percent opposition elements like Ahrar al-Sham, Liwa al-Tawhid, Nur ad-Din Zangi. The list which is said will be announced by Jordon at an “appropriate time,” covers 160 groups in Syria, according to Russian news agency Sputnik. However, the list does not include the one-time favorite terrorist of the West, Hezbollah, which we still do not understand what business it has in Syria. So, the black list is saying, the Sunnis in Syria are terrorists, not the Shiite and secular. France was the only one that would have probably vetoed the BMGK decision based on this disgraceful list and which did not mention Bashar Assad's name, and as you know, it too was brought into line with Daesh's Paris attacks.
While this is the situation, what will the anti-terror alliance led by Saudi Arabia, which last week brought the Syrian opposition groups together in Riyadh, do? Unless a cease-fire is achieved in Yemen, it is difficult for Saudi war jets to be active in a new front, namely Syria or Iraq. Since the real side of Riyadh's fight against the Houthis in Yemen is Tehran, how a cease-fire would be achieved is a critical matter. There is a dialogue between the two sides that was started in Lebanon, yet the answer to the question, “which is more important for Saudi Arabia, Yemen or Syria?” at first impression is that the answer is Yemen. Yet meanwhile, the fight the Saudis are putting up against Russia and the U.S. by lowering oil prices, gives the idea that they cannot give up so easily on Syria.
It is also unknown what kind of partnership will be carried out against “all kinds of terror” by countries like Egypt and the UAE, which consider Ikhwan a terrorist organization, while countries like Turkey and Qatar consider it legitimate. For instance, the UAE's ongoing pressure on the U.K. to declare Ikhwan a terrorist organization or to forget weapons and oil contracts, is in the open. Hence, even though the U.K. has not yet done this, Prime Minister David Cameron has already described Ikhwan as “the possible c of extremism.”
There is also a PKK dimension to this in terms of Turkey, however the degree of criticalness for the Gulf Russia and Iran and in fact the U.S. cooperating with the Democratic Union Party (PYD)-PKK to form an oil and natural gas hinterland in the south of Turkey, under Russian control, is another matter.
While all this is happening, Turkey is obliged to stop Russia's plan to join the Iran-Iraq-Syria line to the Israel-South Cyprus-Greece line. Turkey is currently obligated to do this to keep locked up a third world war and to avoid being completely bypassed. Of course, this requires reaching an agreement on Mavi Marmara. However, the claim in speculative news that “Turkey reaches agreement with Israel,” which I do not believe the source is Israel alone, the agreement also includes the limitation of Hamas's activities in Turkey, either shows Israel is trying to raise its hand in the agreement, which has not yet been finalized, through the media, or others are stepping in with the thought that this agreement will sabotage the plan to join the two lines. Don't ask how, things like this happen in the Middle East on a daily basis.
In summary, under the known conditions, a cease-fire in Syria seems a little difficult and by pushing this plan, the game-setters would more easily go to a bigger war.