The U.S. is readjusting the dynamics in the Mediterranean by establishing the Cyprus-Greece axis and renewing the distribution of power. Cyprus is thus becoming one of the crisis network’s centers.
While doing this, Washington sends Ankara a collective message: “Know your place” means “make a choice,” and “don’t overstep your line” is within that “place.”
We are facing a high-risk situation. We have a lot to say about the new crisis center. In the final analysis, it all depends on military power, and Türkiye is already working on it.
Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said, “We will send more forces there, and we will meet all weapon needs.” (Sept. 29.)
It seems much more will be needed.
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One, continuing its rightful resistance regarding Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership, Türkiye should keep in mind that it may be presented with the Greek Cypriot Administration of Southern Cyprus’ (GCASC) membership to NATO. This matter is an “essential part of Türkiye-West/NATO relations,” because we are in a time when ideas that “the membership acceptance process may be weakened, majority of votes,” are suggested. It is impossible to ensure this without Ankara’s vote – but under normal circumstances! Cyprus is abnormal now.
Two, Mediterranean energy reserves; While this item is developing a potential that will further intensify in relations with Athens (our latest Libya move is related to this), it has included in geopolitics the energy and routes Europe urgently needs due to Ukraine. It is obvious they are seeking to have their debts written off in this regard.
Three, we see that Türkiye is rapidly grasping Cyprus’ new strategic position, and the threats this produces: This is what President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s Cyprus call at the UN General Assembly was all about.
Four, almost everyone is aware of Washington’s plan to design a new map through Cyprus. But if anyone still wants to “see proof,” this alone is enough: The U.S. lifting defense restrictions over the GCASC alone set off the alarm bells.
Five, let's continue to count what we have: Artillery buildups aimed at Greece and the GCASC, warcraft, as well as missile and range radar systems in particular need to be included in the alarm sirens.
Six, Türkiye’s warning to the U.S. to “refrain from spoiling the balance between the two countries” coming during this timeframe, increasing its military presence on the island to the extent of “whatever is necessary,” shows that Cyprus is evaluated no only as a new crisis center but the spark of a likely conflict.
Seven, we faced the reality imposed by existing circumstances: The U.S. is backing Greece and Greeks, supporting their maximalist demands. The latest example was its declaration of the GCASC’s armed forces as a “sister army,” and the decision to train similar to Ukraine. Even Türkiye’s 70-year NATO relations were never honored with such “intimacy.”
Eight, we are following diplomatic activities in Ankara’s Turkish Republic of Nothern Cyprus (TRNC) policies as well. One is the rumor that Russia will recognize the TRNC. We understand the expectation and demand for this to become a reality. Southern Cyprus long hosted Russian investments, oligarchs, and policies. There were official agreements between the two sides along this line as well. They were all broken by the U.S. and U.K., with Russia kicked off the island. We are able to say that Türkiye is now holding meetings in this regard with numerous capitals, including Moscow. We can state that ally countries such as Azerbaijan, Organization of Turkic States (OTS) members, and in fact, India are included among these. There are surprises as well.
Nine, we cannot consider the developments independent of Türkiye’s current election process. We must note that exclusive room was made for this matter on the memorandum released following the “Table of Six” meeting – as everybody awaits their presidential candidates: “The ruling government is trying to conceal the truth that the Turkish-Greek balance in the Aegean is losing its foothold in favor of Athens through heroic speeches.” Interestingly, it is clear that the “experts” on the Table of Six are overlooking the question, “Who is causing instability?” They are trying to say, “We will fix the balance once we come to power” - of course, by normalizing relations with whomever is responsible for the imbalance.
Ten, we must understand that the elections are not considered specific to Türkiye. According to “them,” Türkiye, in other words, the elections need to be regulated in order to regulate the elections, and this is exactly what they are doing.
We are now at the point of explaining the importance of it all to the groups and shallow masses that consider Türkiye’s sensitivity with respect to foreign policy and national security as “hiding the truths.'
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The U.S. is disturbed about Türkiye’s protection of its strategic autonomy. It is very annoyed by our relations with Russia. It believes we are weakening the siege efforts aimed at this country. Its pressures on Türkiye until now regarding this matter are reaching a new stage. Letters to the business world and the prevention of the MIR initiative can be considered the initial step.
The U.S. is disturbed not only by Türkiye’s firm stance but also by the foreign policy steps it is taking against its global hegemony. It believes Türkiye is encouraging multipolarity. It considers the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) summit as one of these.
The American military wing in particular advocates further pressure on Türkiye. According to them, the geopolicy from the Baltic to Eurasia requires Türkiye’s stance to change. Hence, the elections become one of the strategic legs for this.
In brief, Türkiye is perhaps entering a period in which it ponders more upon strategic American presence such as Incirlik, Kurecik, et cetera further tightens the Montreux Convention, increases policies against the U.S.’s other “sister organizations” on our southern border, and drive stress away.
