I wonder what emotions starting to read with the following sentence will trigger in you:
“New dynamics are seen in the strategic partnership between China and Russia. How will this reflect on the domestic policy of the countries “in between,” including Türkiye?”
The likelihood of two superpowers “becoming one” was always undermined by the “concerned and experts” in Türkiye. Though, they did have rightful and valid reasons based on history. Yet, the process that started to develop pre-pandemic gave rise to “a new period,” in which the sides involved in the Moscow-Beijing relations calculated the risks as well. Whether the two countries calculated the likely risks was considered unrealistic by “experts” once again. Yet now, they are the ones asking the above question.
What could have happened to drive them to start contemplating this question, which is their black hole?
***
It was the first anniversary of the Ukraine war. Seems like there will be more anniversaries to come.
There are striking changes in the involved parties’ behavior – note that every country is involved somehow in terms of the primary and secondary effects of this crisis. We need to evaluate whether these changes are good or bad.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit first to Kyiv, Ukraine, and then to Warsaw, Poland, the West’s varying position at the simultaneous Munich Security Conference, the two speeches by Russian President Vladimir Putin - the first includes a criticism of the West with a lengthy and detailed global interpretation – the Chinese foreign minister’s meetings at the Munich Conference followed immediately by a visit to Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping and Putin being scheduled to meet at a super summit in March, and finally, the last remaining deal START, which will protect the world from the nuclear craze, being suspended, have given rise to a startling global climate.
Russia’s condition that France and the U.K. must also be at the table for a new deal includes Europe in the nuclear threat.
***
The reflection of the U.S. and Russia’s internal balances is also responsible for these foreshocks. Everyone believes that if it was not for the U.S., the Kyiv administration could not even survived for one day. However, the fact that segments in the U.S. displeased about the continuity of the war started to voice their opinion louder, the presidential elections agenda very shortly determining political life, and whether you like it or not, former U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement, “We are the closest ever in all of history to World War III,” is making it increasingly difficult to continue this war, which Europe joined unwillingly. Think about it, the U.S. armed forces today are showing the public their power by “shooting balloons.”
The situation is a little different in Moscow as well. Russia endured the burdens of the war beyond prediction, and Putin continues to maintain his popularity among the public. However, they too will have an election in March 2024, and Russia officially declared it is in favor of building a new world without Europe at the center.
There is not much to say about the situation on the ground. The tens of thousands armed are anticipated to complete their training next month, and mobilize on the ground with a better designed plan. But everyone knows that is seems impossible for Russia to completely withdraw from the lands it took, and especially let go of Crimea.
The opinion that the war will continue is stronger. This is nothing other than a “lose-lose” situation. This is where China comes in as a new and transformative factor, as the likelihood of its fulfilling the “strategic partnership” with Russia becomes evident.
Though, don’t be mistaken. This is not to say that China will militarily support Russia in the war. There is no sign of this in its official statements. But, of course, this does not have to be the case either.
***
China presents to the world its political positioning clearly, and in a way that can be identified as “This is an alliance now,” will lead to radical changes.
Europe, and especially France and Germany’s ongoing hesitant position in such a world will cause additional ambiguity/instability. It was reported by some of the most reputable journalists in the U.S. reported – with evidence – that Nordstream was directly sabotaged by the U.S. The world is seeing all this.
Biden is trying in his Europe tour to expand its alliance with the “Nine of Bucharest,” first mentioned months ago in this column. But neither Ukraine nor Poland were at this summit!
The West’s ultimate goal in Ukraine is also uncertain. The number of those claiming “there is no such goal” is increasing daily.
Now, let’s get to the countries “in between.”
***
“Look at what they are doing in the West. Child exploitation is starting to become accepted. Priests are approving homosexual marriages. The Anglican Church is evaluating the idea of a genderless god. Forgive them thy Lord, for they know not what they do.”
Putin’s above statement is not an ordinary critic of the West. The last sentence, which is a reference to Jesus, is giving a description of the world based on characteristics within the extent of the front’s broadness. It identifies the equivalents today of those who tortured and crucified Jesus. A lifetime would not be enough to analyze the subheadings alone.
The “ideal” map of the new geopolitics, referred to as the “multipolar world,” and essentially places the U.S. on the target board, describes a frontline such as Russia-China-Iran-Türkiye. You can add a dozen more countries to it, left and right. Even India is included.
There is no such front at the moment. We can discuss whether it is possible for days. Yet, the new/likely stage in China-Russia relations will push us to consider the strategic countries between the East and West in a different light – while paving the way to disputes in those countries.
Türkiye’s upcoming elections will say something about the new reality that has emerged as a result of this – which is a much bigger and imminent matter than the average hustle and bustle of everyday politics.
