India against us? China on our side? - NEDRET ERSANEL

India against us? China on our side?

We have given a warning like that before; “One of the vulnerable points of attack that this triangle has to be cautious about is the possibility that the long time myth that has been around the Middle East could be turning into a political attack; 'Saudi Arabia already owns this power and with the support of Pakistan it will develop a nuclear weapon!' Let us say that with a situation like this, the perceptions will be about Turkey's closeness with these countries, and the political traps that will come from the new alliance, and from the U.S. front, to 'sabotage the Iran deal'…” (Let me introduce you to the new Troika: Turkey-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia, 04/04.)

Here…. “The former Ankara Ambassador of the U.S., Eric Edelman, alleged that Turkey is implementing the “watch and wait” policy towards the matter of Iran's nuclear program. In a TV Program Edelman attended, while accusing President Barack Obama's administration of acting with the “no matter what it costs, an agreement should be reached” idea in the nuclear agreement arrived at with Iran, he also warned that a nuclear armament race might be experienced in the Middle East. Edelman also stated that, “This agreement has caused a disturbance in Israel, as well as countries like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates, where the majority of the population is of the Sunni sect. This will also be unsettling for Turkey. Thus, Turkey is also in the pursuit of nuclear energy for political objectives.”

We had seen it coming and this is not from the front yet. If it gets bigger, the June election will be awaited for any action to be taken….

It's true that the agreement between the West and Iran has disturbed the “regional” equations/balances; however, the drawn coverage area is wrong; it's not only regional, it's “global”! …..

New Delhi's problem

As of now, the crisis (Yemen) and resolution (Iran) had attracted two great powers to the region, and from now on, everyone including Turkey should include them in their calculations.

It might appear surprising, however, it seems that, as Pakistan gets involved in the “choosing fronts” that is happening in the Middle East, this had unexpectedly stimulated India's national security worries. So much so, that some experts are comparing this state with the “US-Pakistan-Saudi” alliance that had been formed in 1980 against the Soviet intervention in Afghanistan. This is not a graphic comparison either. It's being communized over the “jihad” notion. Under the light of recent developments, a more significant reference will be rare to find.

India also shares the nuclear bomb worry… As Saudi Arabia is also speeding up their attempts to develop a nuclear bomb – with the help of Pakistan –, Delhi is becoming bad-tempered. However, the natural focus point is the speed and potential of the Saudi Arabia – Pakistan military alliance. What should be added on top of this is that the Obama administration has been making moves, in the recent period, on the side of Delhi on the matter of tension between India and Pakistan, and, that they have forgotten about Kashmir, which is another crisis point worthy of a Nobel Prize. (It's already possible to estimate that India will be joining the Middle East game and what should be wondered is: “How will India regard Turkey within this context?” The question is: Did the New Troika have any “connection” related with the Kashmir issue in the 1980s?)

Chinese missiles!

China is also within a more complicated region on the same line. China's high petrol needs and ways are already keeping their relation with the Gulf countries on a completely different level. Following the Yemen incident, such a strategic sensitivity from China has increased. At least the decision to urgently send many warships to the region is reinforcing this opinion.

Beijing is yet to declare a clear stance, which everyone can agree on, related with the attitude of the coalition directed at Yemen. According to the news in the Chinese press, it could be seen that they are approaching coalition moves carefully.

Since it's easy, when coming to an agreement on crisis, which has many alliances and has many factors, usually the related countries will be examined one by one. However, the world is not like that. At the first glance, there are even so many basic notes between the countries, which had been described as being on opposite poles in this article, that spoils the game…. For example; Pakistan's naval forces are in a stern rivalry with India. In order to be equal with them, Pakistan is on the verge of acquiring around 8 to 10 submarines, which will have a total cost in billions of dollars. It's being claimed that the financing of this money will be provided by Saudi Arabia. ('Pakistan govt to buy eight submarines from China', 02/04, İndian Express.)

Naturally, in this period, where even the simplest visits in the region are pursued with indecisive looks, President of China, Xi Jingping's Pakistan visit in the oncoming days are giving strong clues about a perfectly timed “China – Saudi Arabia – Pakistan” alliance.

President of China's Middle East visit in April is not only limited with Pakistan! Egypt and Saudi Arabia are also included in these visits. ('Chinese leader is coming to Middle East', 01/04, World Bulletin) Naturally, the first question that pops in our minds is; will China's visit bless the Saudi movement, which is the riveting force of the coalition constructed in the region, or not?...


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