By the time you read this column, the Russian Federation will have officially annexed the regions/lands it occupied in Ukraine. They now belong to Russia.
Türkiye’s perspective of the issue, as stated by President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is: “The referendum that is currently being held in four cities. Now, what will this bring? It brings trouble...”
It can be said that the entire West shares this state of disturbance. The roaring statements made by the U.S., the EU, NATO, and the UN, as well as by the relevant capitals since the announcement of the referendum decision, are different frames of the same anxiety.
Surely there is a difference between Türkiye’s discomfort and the West’s panic. Ankara would be upset about the low likelihood of peace, that the struggle towards achieving this will be more challenging, and sensitive about the chance that it may spread to Türkiye as well. This is the reason behind meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin – despite knowing it will produce no outcome – only a day ahead of Russia’s “ceremonious” annexation of the Ukrainian cities.
The situation is a little more troublesome in terms of the West, namely the U.S. This is one strike through U.S. efforts to ensure the war is prolonged for as much as possible, to make Russia kneel, and in fact so all this via “proxy,” through the blood of other nations and not its own.
As Russia now has a vaster “territorial integrity,’ and any attacks to these regions will be considered an attack on the “homeland,” it has given rise to a “...we will defend it with all our means. This is not a bluff” situation.
This stage was presented as: “When the referendum is finalized and is accepted by Russia, and the areas in question join Russia, the issue will be completely over. There is no return, and there will be 300,000 troops and nuclear weapons awaiting those who have an issue with. In brief, the referendum and joining Russia is creating a new political and geopolitical reality. The curtain up to this point is closing.” (Yeni Safak, Sept. 24.)
So, what is this new reality? “The real aim/outcome of Moscow’s bluff/nuclear/mobilization/referendum/annexation series is to eliminate the “proxy war. There can be no proxy version of a nuclear war.” (Yeni Safak, Sept. 28.)
You read these statements in my column on the noted dates, and it was only one state along with you that reached this conclusion. This is what President Erdogan means by “trouble”! You will be reading about the Türkiye-specific aspect of that global crisis shortly, but even the world had no idea about what would follow – they did not understand what happened at all (you will read and hear about it a lot from now on. Let’s get on to what is next.)
The ball is now in the West’s corner. The reaction the U.S. and Europe will give to this new reality is a big problem. It is no longer important whether the world recognizes the annexed lands, because Russia is in a position above this. Let alone, what difference will it make “if the only thing done is to not recognize it”? Yet, if you do something, you will need to consider the “nuclear risk.” This is a serious problem, and this is exactly what former Chancellor Angela Merkel’s statement after a long period of silence expresses: “Putin’s nuclear weapon statements need to be taken seriously. Taking his words seriously, not seeing it as a bluff, paying serious attention to them is not a weakness or mitigation, but a sign of political wisdom.”
Unfortunately, heightened concerns in many European capitals regarding the continuation of the war may find no response in Washington or London. What’s worse is that there is a new Prime Minister in the U.K., who saw the “nuclear threat” and called out, “it will be used if necessary.”
We all learned by now that “Mir” is Russian for “world,” and it was the sole economic tool that overcame the vast wall of worldwide sanctions imposed on Russia. It was being used by Turkish banks and tourists visiting our country.
Private banks were the first to leave this practice, then public banks followed. There is a lot of hearsay that new “ways” are being considered. Moscow defined this as the “result of extreme and unmatched U.S. pressure,” but implied that it understands Türkiye.
The MIR matter was additionally correlated with a “warning letter” the U.S. sent to a series of business world institutions in Türkiye. It’s true. However, it also indicated what “will happen” hereafter.
Russia's annexation of the referendum areas is a clue of the potential steps targeting Türkiye, which the West/U.S. will take against the new reality.
Let us elaborate on the “trouble” based on the predictions Prof. Suleyman Seyfi Ogun made on tvnet’s political discussion program, “Akil Odasi,” broadcast on Sept. 20.
There are two aspects to this.
The first one is the ground. Russia can get tougher from this point on, and transform into its traditional savagery, which it avoided until now for political reasons, and launch destructive bombardments. NATO may respond to this with attacks on Russian lands. God forbid what may follow after that.
The second is political. This concerns Türkiye in the first degree and can lead to crises, which will cause serious stress, and impact the process leading up to the elections.
This will simply mean pressure that will manifest itself in the plainest terms as, “choose your side.” Ankara's involvement in the plan aimed at completely suffocating Russia, and its full adherence to all sanctions, will blow up relations between Ankara and Moscow regarding the process that started with MIR, including the Black Sea. In the event Ankara refrains from accepting any involvement, the U.S. will launch a process that may evolve into close combat, including the Aegean and Syria.
This line, which will threaten the TurkStream line, similar to the sabotage on the Nord Stream line, and dare to the extent of economic “destruction,” will impact the Caucasus and Eurasia map as well.
Sounds unpleasant, doesn’t it?
That is the nature of finals. We came this far, so don’t lose hope.
Türkiye will end this dangerous period by “choosing itself.” Have no doubt.
