The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) fully achieved its air operation objectives in the north of Syria and Iraq, and made those responsible for the attack on Istanbul’s Istiklal Avenue pay in “multitudes.” The figures shared Monday by the Defense Ministry confirm this as well.
We seem to have completed the military-technical reading/analyses associated with the operation as well. The location, how it was struck, and the vehicle and ammunition used were evaluated one by one. It was further underlined that the matter did not consist of the military dimension alone, and ended up leading to the “powers behind them.”
If Operation Claw-Sword, on the other hand, is a punishment move, this was met both in quality and quantity. If it has a message – and it is impossible for it not to have one – this is understood from the locations struck.
Some developments that took place ahead of the operation indicate to us that we need to drag on this message.
The first is, without a doubt, the message from the U.S. Irbil Consulate Generale warning its “friends.” Surely, we understand what the message means and what it is saying to Türkiye. The message contains an instruction such as “stop,” as well as the statement, “we know what you are doing.”
Of course, we see the U.S. carrying on intelligence operations against Türkiye, its NATO ally. None of this is a surprise or new. The only difference is that we used to tell them in the past everything they wanted to know, whereas now they have to struggle themselves to find out.
The second point is the timing of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s instruction for the operation. There is only one day between the time the instruction given on the plane as he was returning from the G20 summit, and his meeting with U.S. President Joe Biden!
Analyzing this chronology as Türkiye and the U.S. discussed the operation and reached an “agreement” indicates severe blindness, or “wishfulness.” The truth is that it happened “despite” the meeting.
Neither the length of the meeting nor the conjuncture are convenient. Thus, President Erdogan’s statement, “We held no meeting with Mr. Biden or [Russian President Vladimir] Putin regarding the operation. They both already know that we can do such things at any moment in this region,” closes the matter discussion.
Let alone, saying, “We will show your boys tomorrow,” is meaningless with respect to the parties. Everyone is aware of the situation and one another.
As an additional factor, the psychological background of the events in Indonesia should be included as well.
Information was received during the G20 summit that Russia dropped a missile on Poland – all parties, except Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, denied the claim. The news naturally caused a worldwide ripple, alarming NATO. NATO members present in Bali that were invited to an exclusive meeting by Biden, while Türkiye was excluded. The disturbance this picture caused in Ankara is clear.
When evaluating the operation, this time the president criticized Russia as much as the U.S. Reiterating the fact that neither superpower adheres to the deals made, he said, “[Russians] failed to do this, they are unable to do it, despite our repeated reminders.” Perhaps the only difference with the U.S. is the statement, “they are unable to do it.” This will need to be analyzed as well.
The “operation’s anatomy” no longer has an overshadowed military and political dimension –with the exception of the state’s confidential information. However, we must continue to discuss the strategic and geopolitical layers.
This operation is the biggest one after a while. It takes on the two neighboring countries and draws a map of the points that have not been attacked until today. However, does it indicate the start of a new process in Türkiye aimed at existing terrorism in the region and those behind it? This is the question.
A ground operation is anticipated, and according to many experts, this is both needed, and late. Yet, the same question will apply there and after it as well.
A new start is possible not only militarily but also the presence of a diplomatic/political conjuncture and/or its simultaneous development. Please note, this does not refer to the outdated approach – which is the mediocre realpolitik – that “We can sit at the table with even the devil.”
The constant cliche is that a “new start” that does not rely on the “big map,” and is not parallel to a change in dynamics with the Caucasus on one side, and the Middle East on the other, will be more useful.
For example, the results of the U.S. Nov. 8 interim elections. For example, the change on U.S., Russia, Germany, and perhaps the U.K.’s position about getting together around a negotiation table that will end the Ukraine war, Türkiye-Israel relations, the president’s message to Damascus before the operation, Iran’s shrinking situation (see previous column dated Nov. 19), the geopolitics produced by Türkiye-Azerbaijan relations, the Mediterranean, Asiatic developments including countries such as Libya, the U.K., Egypt, Greece, France, and Italy, et cetera.
These are not individual subject headings. They are all items of the same case. Surely the said players have different interests, but is there a conjuncture developing, which they may accept, and which can drive them im necessary?
Criticisms aimed at the normalization processes Ankara is thinking about developing with Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Israel, Syria, and Egypt, are criticisms fixated on and believe that the world is not turning and that countries’ relations and interests have not changed. It assumes that the players have not moved at all.
Yet, there is movement, and it changes the world’s course. Türkiye’s “new stage in anti-terrorism" plan should also move the course of life to a phase in which it can drag the “pro-tutelage” as well.
