That’s the way natural disasters, economic crises, and wars are.
It gives everyone the impression that your national security, economy, and domestic policy is “ready,” and that you now have an “Achilles heel.”
It is not always wrong either. It is not only a perception. When you lean down towards your pain/wound, they assume you have “buckled under,” and you will “bow” to them in submission.
They are thinking the same as they look at the “disaster of the century.”
We know who Federal Minister for Foreign Affairs of Germany Annalena Baerbock is. So do Germans. In fact, the chancellor knows exactly who she is as well. She is the biggest American apparatus in Berlin.
She says, “I clearly explained in recent months to all NATO members, especially Turkey, that swiftly approving Finland and Sweden’s bid will make us stronger as an alliance. There are currently areas in which all countries are sensitive. We saw this in the quake that hit Turkey as well. This showed us how important it is to have allies and partners who will help us when we need them.”
Is there any need for interpretation?
She is making a direct connection between Sweden and Finland’s NATO membership and making a subtle threat. She can easily add to this list Türkiye-Russia relations and Türkiye’s position in the Ukraine war. There is no doubt that they will bring to the negotiation table these items, regarding which they have had to hold their tongue until now. The normalization steps taken by Türkiye regarding Syria – which was simultaneously hit by the same earthquake – before the disaster are also included in this.
You can see the same traces in NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg’s Türkiye visit on Tuesday.
It became clear during the meetings, whose primary agenda was the earthquake disaster – with NATO aid on display – Finland and Sweden, and the Ukraine war were all brought up.
We understand NATO’s position is pointed out quite “clearly.” Besides the reciprocal politeness/protocol statements, Stoltenberg is saying: “I believe it is time these two countries’ NATO bid is approved.” We can guess that these words were expressed more boldly inside. Türkiye’s response, on the other hand, it quite plain, which is where its strength lies: “We failed to see the tangible results we wanted.”
We need to cite another statement by Stoltenberg: “[The earthquakes in southern Türkiye were] the deadliest natural disaster on alliance territory since the foundation of NATO.” The sentiment in the expression “alliance territory” is hidden in the German foreign minister’s above statement, “We saw this in the quake that hit Turkey as well. This showed us how important it is to have allies and partners who will help us when we need.”
U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken is coming this Monday. He will also be visiting “for the earthquake,” but this visit was scheduled prior to the disaster, and postponed for other reasons. It is happening now.
You can be sure the same Sweden-Finland, Ukraine, Syria, and Russia subjects will come up on the agenda during this meeting as well. The earthquake that hit our country, and the aid made within this context may stand out in the press conference and official statements, but these headlines will definitely be brought to the table. We will also see the discourse they will use. We will pay attention to whether the earthquake will make any difference to the tone, and how these matters are discussed. But up until now, the “new conjuncture” that emerged with the earthquake – according to them – seems to be convenient on their behalf.
On top of all this, “they” add that Ankara has a “wound” to “protect” in the upcoming elections. That is what they are working on. Naturally, the “earthquake” facilitates bidirectional use/exploitation.
NORMALİN AYARLARI…
It is only natural to ask “what it was like before the earthquake, and what happened after.” The economy, domestic policy, foreign policy, national security are all included in this. Until a second before the earthquake Türkiye had established balances, settings, and a future projection – whether short or long-term, makes no difference.
There are now those who interpret this as, “It is ruined,” and others as, “no, they are in place, we just need to adjust the settings.” The outside world interprets the events in the first form, and they assume that because we owe thanks for the help and rescue teams, we will be more tolerant due to our very fresh open wound.
There is no such thing.
Where they are going wrong is the failure to realize that we are continuing to experience the earthquake! The aftershocks may alleviate or even stop, but it is still ongoing in our heart and soul. You cannot come to a place of mourning to extend condolences, and add these to the list. Considering this, if you start to press on the wound in time – and it seems this will most likely be the case - Türkiye’s reaction will be "painful” to the same extent.
Yes, this extraordinary earthquake will be one of the factors determining the processes: the economy, the election, et cetera. However, it cannot and will not change the country’s struggle against the humanitarian and physical destruction caused by the earthquake. Both the election date and the form of the presence on the earthquake ground until that date may be surprising.
Thus, collectively pressuring Ankara both internally and externally, through the economy, and then associating them all to the election through election waves can no longer be a policy! If you think you can join powers and drive Türkiye to “submit to the table of ‘seven’ for protection from the earthquake,” before we are done mourning and praying for the lives we lost, we will part our ways!
