When “normalization” is in question, Türkiye sometimes resumes relations and sometimes starts from scratch with countries with which it has had strained ties.
Israel, Armenia, Syria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) – and Greece – are some examples.
Foreign policy is simple in terms of the opposition: normalization without a care about the conditions, or the pros and cons. Their reasoning is strong because they get it from the Republic of Türkiye’s founding father, Mustafa Kemal Ataturk: “Peace at home, peace in the world.” Sure, since they never experienced or fought a war, they cannot possibly understand how Ataturk associated “home and the world.” Hence, they exploited the same principle for 60-65 years since the 1940s and used the Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) to emasculate Turkish foreign policy.
Therefore, they cannot possibly comprehend “normalization” and its “conditions.”
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They said, “Most certainly and quickly reach an agreement with Egypt.” Cairo has been dragging its heels for months. Not only because it resented Türkiye, but also because it is manipulating the U.S. as well. There is no problem with the Egyptian public, but it just isn’t progressing.
Everyone is sanctifying the gains Türkiye will achieve from normalization with Israel. They are so eagerly “lobbying for the lobby” without knowing whether it is still the same, that one would feel like running to Tel Aviv, seeking forgiveness! But if you point to Israel’s massacres in Gaza, and ask, “what about this?” you can see on live broadcasts how their bubble bursts. They will halfheartedly/unwillingly say, “yes, there’s that too.”
Israel has no intention to detach from the U.S., but their relations are also taking a strange turn. Haifa port went from China to India!
Israel’s domestic policy is currently the obstacle standing in the way of normalization. They are going to elections, and this is delaying the reciprocal steps to be taken. Nobody can project what might happen with the new government – which will probably be a coalition.
Armenia was addressed in the language it understands, and an effective coalition got established with countries who have influence over Yerevan. It was resolved in one-and-a-half months. Yes, problems still exist. There will be more. But there is no turning back to the past! This was such an operation to achieve consistency that its most minor outcome was Azerbaijan’s recovery of its land. The equilibrium in the Caucasus, West Asia, Central Asia, the Caspian, Iran, the Black Sea, and the Middle East changed.
The UAE and Saudi Arabia were the most difficult because the public was reacting. It still is. Let us say, “relations are normalizing even with them." Because the dynamics are not only about Türkiye and these countries’ interior affairs. The movement of the region and the countries that pressure/affect this region have changed as well. Could we have imagined anything good to come out of Saudi Arabia’s convergence with Russia and China? Could we have imagined that an administrator from Riyadh would not answer U.S. leaders’ telephone calls? Yet this country is now manipulating the U.S. by adjusting fuel prices with Russia and signing long-term deals with China.
As for Greece, there are no exploratory or consultative talks, let alone normalization. Is normalization possible in such circumstances?
Conditions. Conjuncture. Consistency. Ankara seeks or creates consistency in normalization.
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In terms of Türkiye’s Syria question, the opposition already revealed how it will solve it. As soon as the opposition comes to power, it will visit Damascus. That’s all. Nobody asked, “You embrace Western/American policies, how will you go to Damascus?”
As the opposition will normalize relations with Washington as well, in other words, as Türkiye will become Türkiye again, they think they are going to be able to establish independent ties with the countries in the region.
A U.K. periodical recently published an opinion article that said something along the lines of, “Even if Erdogan was removed from power, Türkiye cannot change the current policies regarding the West. Because the Turkish public does not want them changed.” How the opposition will balance this is a different matter. In fact, it’s the biggest matter!
Ankara normalizes relations with the countries in question once it achieves the consistency it seeks anyway. In other words, to say, “we told you so,” simply reveals a lack of knowledge about foreign policy, strategy, and security policies.
Türkiye-Syria's internal dynamics, which are necessary for normalization, are less effective for the first time. Regional and global equations are predominant. Consistency is important.
I will elaborate a little. Only a little, if I may!
The first is Sochi of course. There is now a “different” consistency that promoted Türkiye-Russia relations from “bilateral” to the regional and global scale. Russian leader Vladimir Putin encouraging Ankara to talk to Damascus is nothing new, but the impact of those relations has multiplied (see my previous column for the details).
Two, there are four areas in which the synergy arising from the consistency will affect: The Black Sea, the Caucasus, Türkiye-West relations, and Syria!
Three, in addition to Russian lines, besides normalization with Iran, West Asia, and Gulf countries, Türkiye will have an impact through its comprehensive transport lines and economic ties with them as well.
The fourth and most critical point is Damascus, Russia, Iran, and Türkiye’s thoughts and sentiments concerning U.S. presence in Syria!
Five, Damascus has good relations with the Arab countries with which Türkiye already has normal relations or with which it is taking steps towards normalization!
Six, Damascus wants to become a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, which Türkiye will attend in September – same as the countries mentioned in the fifth item.
Seven, Israel! It is clear that Tel Aviv will be extremely annoyed by a convergence between Russia, Iran, Türkiye, and Damascus in Syria. The common opinion is that Israel-Russia relations will recover, but I highly doubt it!
Eight, there are numerous deadlocks behind these items. What is clear though, is that renewed ties between Ankara and Damascus will be effective in opening them.
There is also the defeat of the terrorist organizations in the area where the primary problem is U.S. presence and the state of the migrant issue.
These are the consistencies. This is just the tip of the iceberg.
