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Columns

Will the US withdraw without the need for a ground operation?

10:59 . 30/11/2022 Çarşamba

Nedret Ersanel

Nedret Ersanel embarked on his journalism career in 1990. He penned articles for and served on the editorial boards of several publications such as Söz, TRT, Sabah, Yeni Şafak, Star, Trend, and Focus magazine. Ersanel has written five books.

Nedret Ersanel

The Covid pandemic, which recently flared up again in China, is causing not only the virus to spread through the country but also demonstrations. This is an interesting case as the world is paying no attention to the “epidemic,” yet the demonstrations are shared widely. 

The real point of interest is why Beijing insists on imposing the “zero cases” objective on its people to the extent of suffocation. These course of events naturally strengthen the fear/theory that China will withdraw, minimizing its ties to the global economy, get caught in a production bottleneck, and take down with it the world and the U.S. 

If China's economy starts to fall apart, the world, already staggering, may get completely stuck in a quagmire. Meanwhile, the country has not yet ruled out the “Middle Way.” As we were conducting the air operation, Türkiye, Iran, and Russia were discussing Syria in Astana. Russians proposed to “include China.” (“Astana’ya yeni aktör Çin,” M. Güller, 26/11, Cumhuriyet.) The “observer” status is very interesting! Including a third superpower in the Syria equation? Iran said “Okay.” Ankara said, “let me see”!

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The West is more chaotic.

The media’s favorite picture these days is the frame showing deputies shivering in their coats and scarves at the German parliament. It is meaningful because it means, “If Berlin is like this, just think about the rest of Europe.”

Such news reports surely imply, “Winter is coming.” We know this is no meteorological report - part of it touches U.S.-Europe relations.

As a part of Europe submitted to the U.S. since World War II, it is crying out to the U.S., “Europe is falling out of the global league, help us.” This is the origin of the “New Marshall Plan” ideas - despite the U.S. being the reason they are in this position.

The Economist magazine wrote, “this will be followed by economic and political collapse.”

There is a relatively intelligent segment within the EU as well. They know the perpetrator. But they are afraid. Politico wrote about this, saying, “U.S. profited the most out of the Ukraine war due to sky-high gas prices, and weapon sales.”

The EU thinks the European industry can be eliminated by its American rivals. There is a trust crisis in trade matters. It is claimed that the Transatlantic alliance may be harmed. There is talk of a historic intersection, and that public opinion is changing in many EU countries. In fact, they are asking, “Is the U.S. not our ally?” We asked the same thing many times as well. We are still dealing with those who continue to ask.

Whether any of this will happen, if so, how much of it will happen is a different story, and we will see it over time, but you can be sure that global tensions will not stop escalating. It will continue to expand. The U.S. attacked Russia through Ukraine, and China through Taiwan. Now, Russia and China are attacking the U.S. through Cuba - right on the 60th anniversary of the “October Missile Crisis.” Interestingly, all this is happening as the Cuban president visits Türkiye for the first time in 27 years. 

I am not even mentioning the Belarus plots, who poisoned the “foreign minister,” who is poisoning Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko.

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Türkiye is like a diamond in the “middle” of the chaos, but you see what is around us as well.

Everybody knows now the aspect of Greece-U.S. relations reflecting on us. There is also what is happening inside Athens itself. The government scandal of commonly listening to critical people’s telephones should be considered a sign that the U.S. will not leave anything to chance, and keep the government on the edge.

Iran is experiencing extraordinary events. I wrote in length in a previous column (Nov. 19), so I won’t dwell, but it seems that as Iranian Religious Leader Khamenei's nephew is arrested, Tehran is going to make a military move on the north of Iraq - and it looks like this will coincide with the timing of our ground operation.

Since we are on the subject of our southern border…

The official discourse that a ground operation will launch following the air operation, and the public expectation in relation to this remains high to the same extent.

The last is the statement by President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s following the cabinet meeting: We do not have to tolerate the hypocrisy of of those supporting the officially recognized terrorist organization through name change games. Those sermonizing about democracy, rights, and freedom, need to first look at the terrorists and their supporters in their own country. At a time we are experiencing events that will radically change the global security architecture, Türkiye is now able to meet its own needs despite the countless injustices and sanctions it faced. Nobody will have the strength to coerce our country anymore into positions conflicting with its own interests in diplomatic, economic, and military fields through futile threats.”

It seems like the operation is being conducted in the U.S., right?

There could be two reasons to announce an upcoming military operation - especially while “we may come ‘suddenly’ one night” is our attack principle.

First, you think you can achieve your objective without clashing. Second, you calculated that it would make no difference that they know we will come, they will not be able to develop a response that will change the result, and they are hard-pressed.

Both are included in the Turkish plan. Both are right.

So, what does Türkiye want? A 30-kilometer-deep security line. In other words, it is asking the U.S. and Russia to keep their promise - but mostly to the U.S. How do we know this? A) The secret subjects of official discourses, B) They take it personally. Some columnists who were quick to hear about the U.S. ambassador’s visit to Defense Minister Hulusi Akar wrote, “Americans suggest withdrawing Democratic Union Party (PYD)-People’s Protection Units (YPG) forces under 30 kilometers without any need for Türkiye’s ground operation.”

If this is true, at a time when almost a countdown has started, movement is necessary in “said targeted regions.” Let us wait and see.

Türkiye has already spoken: “Nobody should be disturbed by Türkiye’s military operations aimed at expanding its circle of security and peace.”

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