Distribution of Great Powers compared to Superpowers

Could Israel and Russia, Turkey and the U.S. have reached a deal?

It seems that way.

That’s what the Manbij deal and the Iran agreements on the Syria-Israel border mean…

Only the “quality” of the agreements are up for discussion. This acceptance also insinuates reconciliation between Russia and the U.S. as well – and signifies a different atmosphere in Syria…

Putin: “We are not building long-term military structures there [in Syria] and if we need to, we could withdraw our military personnel very quickly.” (07/06)

This way, the entire region will start progressing toward a new period.

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It is a functional and conventional method to read maps by putting together the pieces. Sometimes maps can also be read – and as a matter of fact, be established – by folding and dividing.

For example, can we make a connection between Israel’s participation in the East European NATO “Iron Sword” drill held on the Baltic-Russia border despite not being a member, and the announcement from both Ankara and Moscow and both their leaders stating that one of the alternatives for the TurkStream line that will extend to Europe is Bulgaria?

If we cross over to the other side of the Black Sea, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Georgian counterpart Giorgi Margvelashvili held a phone call on June 1 and discussed the Trans Anatolian National Gas Pipeline Project (TANAP). This call was held on the 100th anniversary of the establishment of the Democratic Republic of Georgia and meanwhile, thousands of people in Tbilisi were protesting a case related to the killing of two students. The Georgian chief prosecutor resigned, but the protesters did not stop – they wanted the government to resign too.

We can extend Syria to Georgia! The Assad regime only recently recognized Abkhazia and South Osseta, which left Georgia – which is under Russian occupation – and declared their independence.

On a different note, can we tie together the new government that emerged following the political turmoil in Yerevan announcing that Armenia is ready to meet with Turkey without preconditions with Azerbaijan taking over the important points of the strategic Kizilkaya Mountain, about which all parties remained silent?

You can also add that the Azerbaijan forces that joined EFES-2018, one of Turkey’s most spectacular drills, coming “first.” (A.Ağar, 30/05)

Is the new Yerevan closer to the U.S. and/or Turkey? If the Russians said “yes,” why not?

Having mentioned Azerbaijan, there is nothing to say about its friendship, but let’s note some more information: Azerbaijan oil was 20 percent Baku, 80 percent BP. In 2019, this is going to be 50-50.

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On June 4, Turkey took a decision that perfectly complies with the reciprocity principle and introduced additional customs tax to 22 products it imports from the U.S. On June 5, China announced under the same “trade wars” headline that “If the U.S. applies customs taxes, the trade agreements between the two countries will become void.” This outburst that signifies burning all bridges not only impacts Turkey, but also Russia and Europe…

But something even stranger happened! China’s Special Representative for the Middle East Gong Xiaosheng made the statement, “Israel and Egypt asked Beijing to play a great role in the Palestine-Israel peace process. This is an important development.”

This really is very important because until today, Israel was pushing for the U.S. to be the only side on the Palestine matter. This development shows that Israel, which felt isolated because of the crisis which reached breaking point with the Jerusalem matter, is raising a two-headed snake. It is taking into account the U.S., which has upcoming elections, while also inviting China to take part in a “Global Coalition.”

This proposition is quite attractive for China. As the trade wars sparked by steel continue, its greatest need, energy bribe, is being offered through Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

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We also need to keep a close eye on the back area… Pakistan-India. This problematic area includes Afghanistan and it connects to the “double” Silk Road, which has reached Iran balances and is a competitor to the sea route. In other words, it is impossible for chaos not to break out here!

On June 5, Indian Defense Minister Nirmala Sitharaman declared that if the Indian army is provoked by Pakistan, it will respond: “We are going to be on alert to ensure an attack does not go without a response.”

It may seem like it is not a new situation in the region. Last week, two Indian soldiers were killed and eight civilians were wounded in the clashes that broke out in Kashmir, which has turned into a never-ending story.

Even though the statement may appear to be in relation to this, New Delhi, which will normally be written next to the U.S., shifted position in the latest trade wars toward the east.

This renders the Af-Pak balances and the area in which the Indian geography is located even more complicated. Turkey’s announcement of its greatest weapon sales at a single time also came on top of this: “We are currently in discussion with a country for four MİLGEM Corvette productions and sales.” The “country” Defense Minister Nurettin Canikli, who announced this almost $5-billion deal, is referring to is most likely Pakistan.

As we reach Qandil with the U.S.-Iran-Iraq-Turkey-Erbil pentagon, I have run out of space.

For now, list which of the countries mentioned may be “secret allies/foes,” and I will divide the map into smaller pieces in my next article.

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