Are we able to fully understand the nature of Turkey, U.S. and Russia relations?

Frequently no, and thus we are inclined to perceive incidents after dividing them into parts. This process makes them easier to digest, but then we miss the big picture.

Turkey appearing to be more present in Syria together with the U.S. through the “safe zone,” while siding with Russia in the west, in Idlib, as a result of the Astana-Sochi processes, signaled that this would eventually result in a dispute.

It is no secret that the U.S. metaphor about “pulling the plug on Astana” soured relations between Ankara and Moscow.

As Kremlin has become concerned about rapprochement between the U.S. and Turkey, Ankara is concerned about the reduction of its gains on the ground in Syria with the moves of Moscow and Damascus at the table.

Yet, the meeting between President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin that took place yesterday is going to result in the “renewal of the consensus.”

This neither simplifies nor eliminates the sensitivity of the meeting. Such a meeting being held while a summit is coming up on Sept. 16 explains the situation. It is also certain that there are scars with respect to the “progress” of the Astana-Sochi processes. However, the stage Turkey-Russia relations have reached today is “too great to collapse.”

All three countries can reach a consensus on the east of the Euphrates.

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Let us look at the “irrelevant” statements made by two superpowers before President Erdoğan’s airplane takes off as the U.S. and Idlib legs of the tension between Moscow and Ankara collapse.

Kremlin: “President Erdoğan and President Putin are going to discuss military-technical cooperation and regional topics within the scope of the MAKS-2019 fair. We are not saying anything about whether Turkey made Russia an offer with respect to the procurement of SU-35 warplane. However, President Erdoğan is going to have the chance to see the SU-35s at the fair.”

Washington/Pentagon: “[In relation to whether there are any go backs regarding Turkey’s removal from the F-35 program] Turkey is an ally and a strategic partner for us. We are keeping the F-35 issue separate from our other operations with Turkey. This issue was openly an S-400 and F-35 problem. Therefore, we always continue to talk to Turkey.”

Regardless of whether you consider these simultaneously made statements true/sincere or entirely a lie, the result does not change. Both statements are aimed at one another and, to an extent, at the Erdoğan-Putin meeting.

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Furthermore, we cannot consider the timing of the visit coincidental.

Turkey’s national defense minister said: “Based on the deal with Russia, S-400 procurement efforts started on July 12. The first battery arrived. Transport operations for the procurement of the second battery will start as of tomorrow, in other words, Aug. 27.” And that is exactly what happened.

In other words, as the presidential plane departed for Russia, Russian aircraft carrying the S-400s started to land in Turkey.

***

There actually is no need for such messages. Ever since the Erdoğan-Putin meeting was confirmed, Russian troops were stationed between some of our observation points in Idlib and the “regime” where they raised a flag.

They did this to “prevent provocations”. Interesting, is it not? Who is going to do the provoking in question? What sort of attempt may be made by the forces said to be “under Russia’s control”? Or is there something else in play?

***

Turkey is dealing with two superpowers at its own border. Regardless of whether you say, “it is fighting” or “playing,” this is the situation.

However, there is an opposition inside the border that is trying to gain the upper hand through these “games.” It seems that Ankara has given up hope on those parties regarding the “national and local” stance. But it thinks voters can see the picture.

“As we are destroying the terrorist corridors they are trying to build along our borders, thwarting the attacks on our economy, negating the scenarios plotted against us today, we are continuously providing services in every field.”

This statement by President Erdoğan will strike a chord with oppositional bigotry, but as the electorate criticizes Ankara with respect to foreign politics and national security, it should also see their everyday life. What other country is able to maintain the normal flow of life under such conditions?

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At this point, we should also touch on the issue of Turkish “generals” who have requested their retirement.

On the eve of a military operation, a storm has broken out regarding the resignations that followed the decisions taken by the Supreme Military Council. We know of two, but the exact number is unknown.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TAF) would not be affected even if the number was 20.

But there is another matter.

Turkish journalist and scenarist Mr. Avni Özgürel, who appeared on the TVNET “Akıl Odası” (Mind Room) television program on Aug. 20, made a statement about the operation, at the time the Supreme Military Council decisions were taken and there were no assignments and retirement petitions:

“We have been intending to conduct an operation since last year. Had we launched an offensive, even with the U.S. against us, it would have given us a greater advantage or cause less harm than not conducting it. The president’s will was in this direction. Yet, a political will is limited to the confines of the arguments it is presented with – the president may have wanted to go ahead with it but he may be dissuaded to...”