The U.S.-based system that was established post-World War II was “promising security” to the countries that agreed to submit to this order. Since this “promise” was constantly puffed up and polished, we weren’t be able to see anything beyond the gleam of its shine.
The conditions of submission, however, were skipped.
Today we are discussing the vestiges of that system following the coronavirus that boosted the economic/gold-dollar-oil/political/social/moral-ethical crises and multiplied their effects. The problem is that, similar to the virus, the system may also undergo mutation.
The U.S./West’s “security promise” was not solely of a military nature. The areas of crises we mentioned were parts of the system and, including language, culture, and art, it presented “values” defending the integrity of the system.
Speaking of the “post-epidemic new world order,” we are discussing a dilemma tangentially only: What sort of a security umbrella can a country, a “super power” that is falls short of protecting its own citizens, that even sacrificed them for the presidential elections scheduled for the end of the year, that ignored what it did in Vietnam and its losses there and left the bodies of its voters to rot in containers do for other countries?
What is worse, the alternative candidates who are running office represent a different school that holds the same view regarding the world order. Both fronts have cells within energy, defense, intelligence and religion.
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Surprisingly, Middle Eastern and Central Asian countries, often referred to as the “East,” were able to take under control the epidemic despite their limited resources, despite always being accused of being “clueless about science,” and despite being closer to the origin of the virus.
A total of six people died in Taiwan. Malaysia recorded 100 deaths; Kazakhstan 27; Bangladesh 182; Kyrgyzstan 10; Laos 0; Cambodia 0; Myanmar 6; Nepal 0; and Thailand 54. Vietnam? Zero! It even sent aid to the U.S.
Vietnam officially categorized the coronavirus infection a "class A infectious disease of global emergency" on Feb. 1, 2020. This declaration of national emergency came upon the diagnosis of the sixth case. (“Containing the coronavirus: Lessons for Vietnam,” 30/04, World Bank blogs.) Yet, the U.S. administration waited to declare a national emergency until March 13, 2020, after about 2,000 confirmed cases across 46 states. Its current death toll stands at 70,000 and is expected to exceed 100,000.
However, this is of no significance for the American political order. The election comes before everything.
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Washington is now following a policy that holds China responsible for the deaths of the hundreds of thousands of people in the world and the U.S. According to many experts, this is due to the desire to conceal its defeat against the epidemic and to reduce its impact on the ballots.
This quick acceptance is lacking. U.S. President Donald Trump’s accusation of China is not directly related to the epidemic. As a matter of fact, whether he needs such an excuse is even doubtful, because a significant voter base still supports the way the government is handling the epidemic. However, the common ground for both Republican and Democrat voters is the concerns regarding China. As many as two-thirds of Americans have negative views of China, and this is what Trump is playing at. (“US views of China increasingly negative amid coronavirus outbreak,” 21/04, PEW.)
This is why we are saying the election is more important than anything else. Hiding the defeat against the virus by drawing attention elsewhere is all fine but the U.S. was praising China until mid-March. It was not until unemployment, economic shrinkage, finance markets became strong enough to impact the presidential elections that Trump started singing a different tune.
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China mostly means economy.
Therefore, there must be a limit to how far China should be pushed. In other words, you can render relations with this country dangerous for the world when you are simply trying to win the elections in internal politics through China. Of course, Beijing is aware of the elections and is prepared to show limited tolerance.
What if the lines are crossed?
China has many trump cards. Some of these are the facts that were revealed as a result of the epidemic; it has critical control over global health resources. China is in possession of the protective equipment, masks, gowns, and respiratory devices that U.S. hospitals need. In fact, if China is the first to develop a vaccine, it is going to further strengthen its rising global position.
It does not end there. It has a commitment to buy goods from the U.S. totaling $200 billion! New Zealand and Australia learnt a similar lesson. They attempted to apply sanctions on Chinese goods but when Beijing reminded them of its imports from these two countries ($195 billion), they quickly gave in.
China has already started to heat up the economy post-epidemic. In other words, it is in the lead. China and the economic field of its region are connected with the U.S.
If a trade war is going to ensue, it coincides with extremely bad timing; the pandemic is crushing U.S. and global economies. Unemployment is rising. GDP is falling at a rate never seen before. Organizational profits are declining. Production is shrinking. Yet, all these were in the making before the epidemic. Now, if the U.S. chooses to punish China for its currently questionable role in the epidemic, we will find out all together what global financial pain means.
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Are there any other risks?
Numerous analysts are underscoring the fact that the likelihood of a war starting has risen. We must mention a new report that the Ministry of State Security presented to President Xi Jinping and top-level Beijing leaders. (“Exclusive: Internal Chinese report warns Beijing faces Tiananmen-like global backlash over virus,” 04/05, Reuters.)
The grim picture painted by the report is that “it clearly reveals the likelihood of a military conflict between the U.S. and China due to the increased dispute over the epidemic.”
It is no secret that a wave is expected to hit China after the epidemic and the election. It is also no secret that Beijing considers this a national security issue, because it is well aware that this is going to affect the balances in the Silk Road and the Pacific.
