Even though the backbone of U.S.-Saudi ties have been cracked, a multi-billion dollar brick is holding their relations together...
Ever since Sept.11, 2001, a series of events, including the murder of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi, have been used as a whip to ensure that Riyadh remains “latched” onto Washington. There is no other bond than this...
We surmised the foreign policy of Saudi Arabia as the formula of “money makes all problems go away.”
It isn’t any different with the U.S.; Saudi has made its largest ally “purchase” with Washington.
However, there are missing pieces of the puzzle!
The biggest driving force behind Saudi Arabia being a huge weapons buyer, its financial capacity and large investments, is of course oil.
The decades-long strategic and geopolitical interpretations in the Middle East are made through this well-known fact.
The latest rumor is that the U.S., leaving Russia and Saudi Arabia behind, will become the world’s largest energy exporter. We’ve been seeing the signs for seven years but in an extremely short amount of time—5 years—,we will bear witness to its extraordinary rise.
This is what Aramco is!
It would be wrong to deduce that the U.S. will sever its energy ties to the Middle East.
But we have to see that it’s going to change tactics. Riyadh and Moscow are big energy exporters, but both build most of their budgets around one source of income.
If you are in possession of petrol or gas resources you have no need for energy suppliers, but this situation makes you dependent on energy! Especially on their prices.
If America becomes the world’s top energy exporter, if it can stand on its own two feet by selling its oil, that means it has entered the league of nations that have achieved self-sustaining economies!
In short, the U.S. is drawing one of its most sharpest swords that it has kept hidden in its sheath until today.
This being the case... It won’t exactly be a wild prediction to say that Russia-Saudi ties are in for a change! We will be able to observe tangible steps soon! ('Bogdanov and the Saudi Ambassador discussed preparations for Putin's visit to Riyadh', 23/09, Urdu Point.)
If you need more proof, look not further than Putin’s words saying the Aramco attack wouldn’t have happened if Saudi Arabia was in possession of S-400 missiles.
“We are ready to help Saudi Arabia to protect their people. And they need to make one clever decision as Iran did, buying our S-300, and as Mr. Erdoğan did by deciding to buy the most advanced S-400 Triumph air defense systems from Russia,” Putin said during his visit to Turkey.(17/09, Ankara. 'U.S.-made Saudi air defenses are ineffective against drones- Russian military source', 19/09, TASS.)
One dramatic visit took place around the same time as Putin’s visit to Turkey.
U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo flew to Saudi Arabia under the watchful eyes of those who made the connection between the dismissal of John Bolton and the attacks on Aramco. There he tried to defend the Patriot missiles: “We’ve seen air defense systems all around the world have mixed success. Some of the finest in the world don’t always pick things up.”
Hence we move on to a more pressing question: As the U.S. deploys new military units to the region after the Aramco attack, which is claimed to be conducted by Iran, “who is the U.S. really going to keep watch against?”
We are on the cusp of a new wave of energy wars which are going to be justified using the attack on the Aramco facilities and it is all going to happen within two shakes of a lamb’s tail.
If their is any wave great enough to shatter the so-called U.S.-Saudi alliance, then that is the Aramco attack.
Thus, we can summarize the plot of the story centered around Saudi and the U.S., and to an extent Russia, like this. However, there is more than meets the eye. China and India also play a significant part, which leads us to a wider spectrum on the Iran-Pakistan-India-Afghanistan faultline...
New Delhi and Beijing make up the world’s energy vacuum and they don’t joke around when it comes to their needs not being met.
The nuclear-risk tensions between Islamabad and New Delhi are fueled by the same source of the never-ending protests in Hong Kong.
These kind of apocalyptic crises, from the Cold War to the fall of the Berlin Wall, would have been debated fervently in the past. Now silent chaos is prevalent, which is much worse.
Two Fireballs: Turkey and the U.S....
I don’t want to use media cliches like the “critical meeting” or “do or die” but it is true that we are at a turning point in the relations between Turkey and the U.S.
The Erdoğan-Trump meeting that’s going to take place on the sidelines of the UN is significant. As I was writing this column, the UN general assembly had not yet started, the speeches had not commenced nor had bilateral meetings. However we are aware of a series of developments that took place backstage...
For example, it is significant that even though they are going to meet face to face, a telephone call took place. It would be naive to evaluate this meeting as just involving “niceties.”
We cannot explain senator Graham calling Trump during his meeting with Erdoğan as random.
If that were the case, then the U.S.’s new envoy to Turkey wouldn’t have directly made Ankara an offer which includes the F-35 fighter jets, Patriot missiles and a trade package!