Foreign policy and national security experts, along with a number of journalists, are increasingly observing that we are transitioning into a period where the conditions are similar to those before the devastating world wars took place.
Those who say that an “economy-politics” justification is what is missing in order to march to war are simply presented with Argentina as the “final straw.” The U.S.-China trade wars are the main issue, but comprehensive economic stagnation is considered a dangerous threshold.
Just like the assassination back then targeting Archduke Franz Ferdinand, the heir to the throne of Austria-Hungary.
There are many signs.
In order to describe a large-scale regional war or global chaos, the connection between the cracks and strategic concaves need to be explained.
In other words, unless we are able to determine why the most intense B-52 strategic bombardment aircraft of recent history was deployed in the U.K., unless we are able to ascertain the queen and the Parliament’s separate relations with the U.S., and its connection with the crisis in Europe and for example, the Hong Kong demonstrations, we cannot connect the dots behind the Greek foreign minister’s call, “European Union countries’ battleships should gather around us,” and the Turkish main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) leader’s, “Everyone is in the Mediterranean, except for us” outburst, turning a blind eye to our discovery/drill ships and the great Turkish fleet.
Similarly, we would not be able to make any sense of the resignation of the Russian ambassador to the U.K., the Egyptian ambassador’s death, the resignation of the Georgian prime minister – who was in office for one year only – the Pope being stuck in the elevator for 30 minutes after selecting 13 cardinals with “Islamic sensitivity,” Saudi Arabia’s deportation of hundreds of doctors toward Pakistan, and many other events.
The fault line where foreshocks are felt the strongest is the India-Afghanistan-Pakistan triangle and the Indian Ocean. At the time this article was being written, news agencies were announcing that Russia and Iran are going to launch a new military drill in the region. And this is only a drop in the ocean.
The U.S. is pitting India against them. It is difficult to understand New Delhi’s decision to alter Kashmir’s status at a time there are numerous problems in its own region and country. Yet, when you use the U.S. as the key, you can hear it “click.”
India has important role in the competition between the U.S. and China, and it is also the driving force of the Afghanistan-Pakistan-Iran line in the east, all the way to Cyprus, and towards Russia in the north.
Of course, it is the “guard” of the Silk Route both on land and water.
The tensions between Pakistan and India seem to have overcome the acceptance that two countries with nuclear weapons would not battle. Hence, both sides are trying to draw to their side as many and strong allies as possible.
Of course, not for “free.”
There are those who have been whispering that in the last G-7 summit, which took place without Russia, France, which has been showing interest in India with this respect, put its warcraft on the table. Of course, submarines, 18 Caracal helicopters, and more than 80 Panter helicopters for its fleet are also included in the deal.
There is no doubt that the U.S. will take the lion’s share, but the focus might not be on the defense industry; the U.S. energy industry is expecting “gigantic” investment opportunities from India – including nuclear energy. This means it is eyeing Iran and Russia’s connections. Russia, which has a veto right in the UN, is expecting to get $6 billion from India for the S-400s. The real deal between the two superpowers is going to be revealed in Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to Moscow, which will start tomorrow. Thus, as Prime Minister Modi meets with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Vladivostok (at the East Economy Forum), he is going to be considering the significance of the abovementioned drill on his mind.
In other words, we are going to watch live how a superpower with nuclear weapons gives money to the “system.”
However, Kashmir cannot be calmed down in this way. Because the issue is not Kashmir.
It is not enough to build relations with three out of five of the UN Security Council countries in this manner. The U.K. and China are left behind, and they both have a veto right in the council.
Is it strange for so many players to come to the field for such a small region on the big map? As a matter of fact, we did not even mention the Pakistan front, and another stage including Turkey, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia is opening a curtain there.
We need to ascertain the agenda of the world
The Astana Summit that will take place in Turkey on Sept. 16 is gaining further importance. We need to comprehend who will benefit from the U.S. attacking Idlib after the Erdoğan-Putin meeting. Russia’s support to the east of the Euphrates also needs to be interpreted correctly. Russia did not object to Turkey and U.S. walking towards the safe zone. Yet, while consenting to this, the Kremlin did not once mention the U.S. What it considers legitimate are Turkey’s concerns. It is trying to say, “They cannot walk together.”
We say it time and time again, the plug on Astana could not be pulled despite all the wounds and scars, and the likelihood of the process becoming five countries is rising. Germany and France sitting at this table, and Iraq being in the back seats is a sign of the finale.
The fat lady’s scene is approaching.