The National Intelligence Agency and its Undersecretary have always been honored with great public interest. It’s not a secret that there was much speculation over it. The government didn’t want Hakan Fidan to leave his position, also, the organization doesn’t want to let their undersecretary go either.
The government doesn’t want him to leave, because the national security organization is producing a more striking efficiency when it’s played within “team spirit”, and its effect is extraordinary. The institution is also content with his “consistent, modern, quality” management and his “prestige”. They are wearing all the criticisms and attacks from the outside as a medal, and they regard it as part of their duty. Now everyone is happy.
There is conjuncture that leads to the June elections and the Mosul war. From now on, that conjuncture is what we should be looking at, and, we should be establishing its balance and timing…
FIRST PHASE…..
On March 3rd, Barack Obama, the President of the US, answered the Special Representative of Global Struggle against ISIL, John Allen’s, questions related with “the position of Turkey within the coalition” at a conference entitled “the future of the fight against ISIL”. His reply was, “Turkey’s participation in the coalition is still advancing and there are still a couple of matters we should discuss about the future." They are general statements, however there is a point that should be emphasized… “There are still a couple of matters we should discuss”
In the same conversation, Allen also announced that for the first time, the US directly sent weapons to Arbil rather than via Baghdad….
On the following day (March 4th), Turkish newspapers shared many related developments with their readers…. “Turkey sent two airplanes full of military aid material to Baghdad who is preparing for the Mosul operation against ISIL. Two C-130 military airplanes, which carried Turkey’s aids against Iraq, landed in El Musenna Military Airport. In an announcement made by Turkey’s Baghdad Embassy, it was stated that: “Within the scope of the International Coalition of Fighting against DEAS and on a binary level, Turkey is on the side of the Iraqi Government and community in their war against terror.” This news had been announced to the public together with the photos of both country representatives in the same frame holding Turkish and Iraqi flags. (“Military aid to Baghdad from Turkey”, 03/03 AA)
On the following day, Minister of National Defense, İsmet Yılmaz, flew to Baghdad. Before he departed, he said; “By becoming a member of this coalition (Mosul Operation) Turkey began to make concrete contributions”.
DO 'CONDITIONS' REFER TO 'NEGOTIATION'?
Back in March 4th, Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu said; “Mosul, Kirkuk and Arbil are important within the context of our national security and many collaborations we have with Iraq, including energy. We are making studies on what we can do with the Iraqi central government and the Kurdistan Regional Administration. We will not be indifferent to the developments in those lands. As for the operation (Mosul), we will find out what its conditions will be in time….”
The conditions are yet to be discussed, this is clear. The Prime Minister answered the “Is there a possibility to join the operation as a combatant force?” question by saying, “At the moment, there is no condition that requires that.” As for the “How about the İncirlik Base?” question, he replies, “The conditions that will be formed through negotiations are important.” He doesn’t say, “The İncirlik Base is open”; he says “It’s not closed”. All of them mean “conditions”.
As the Mosul Operation is nearing, we learn that the Commander of the US Land Forces, General Ray Odierno, will be coming to Ankara. Our acquaintanceship is known to all, Odierno will be in Ankara today, if there won’t be any changes, and he will be received in the General Staff.
WAR AND THE BALLOT BOX
Before anything, let’s state this; the US will not be asking for combatant soldiers from Turkey. After all, there is no such condition that requires this. The reply they will get is clear; “While they are not fighting on land, it’s not possible to send Turkish soldiers to war, besides, it's right before the elections.” Also, the US will not bring this topic up anyway. Even if they knew they will get an affirmative “ok” answer; they will not! (Fundamentally, these types of conversations won’t be done on Odierno’s level. We have to learn about this; the Commander of Land Forces will talk about “logistics”.) Two, we have to understand that the war in Iraq is being conducted from three different sides; the Iraqi army, Peshmerga forces and the US support! Does the Iraqi army ask for land forces aid from outside for this operation?
Three, let me write about the American idea of “Can we ask for air support if it’s urgent and necessary?" It’s possible. The right ascension of “urgent” is important for Ankara. For example; a plane crashes next to your border, the pilot will have to be saved – like the example of the Jordanian pilot- and this cannot be executed without air support. This is specific.
The bigger picture is post-Mosul… If Mosul is purified of ISIL, then will this pave the way to purify Damascus in Syria?... The conditions are related with this.
Finally, let us remind you of the two reasons behind the Tomb of Suleiman Shah operation ; one of it is overt, while the other is subtle. The overt one was to avoid “falling into a trap in the region, and being dragged into war”. There are many, internal, regional and global powers that could do this; it was to be purified. Two, as for the subtle one; if it was still necessary to fight, then it was necessary to have the hands empty, and they are. Why are we writing again? Because it looks like the war and elections will be happening at the same time. Besides, if everyone says, “Let it start and end before Ramadan”, then the whole election period will be experienced in discomfort. This was the information “intentionally leaked” by the American army, combatants (!), despite Washington and even Pentagon.
Let us make another observation: If they coincide, the operation will not constrain the elections. It will be beneficial.
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