There is no such thing as “the U.S. is collapsing.” That would come with a bigger bang. It may withdraw from the field; and such a possibility should be discussed. Even if it does withdraw, it won’t go down without putting up a fight. However, it is going to be “less present” in the world. This much is certain. Yet, it is not willing to give in either. The issue is, who will fill its void and how?
Whether they reach high numbers of cases/deaths or not, whether they experience tragedies before the entire world that will put their states to shame, all the big players are looking at the end result. Their short terms are between September-February.
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I have considered the oil crisis as an integral part of the epidemic and followed it accordingly. A consensus was made to recover the plummeted oil prices. Yet this reconciliation is not something that can be brushed off as a “cut in production.”
U.S. Secretary of Energy Dan Brouillette said: “Today’s crisis transcends the interests of any one nation and requires a swift and decisive response from us all […] This is a time for all nations to seriously examine what each can do to correct the supply/demand imbalance.” (“Trump congratulates Putin and bin Salman for reaching a deal to stop oil war,” 12/04, Daily Mail)
Whether the cutback is working is also doubtful. The cutback of 10 million barrels hardly moved a feather, then prices regressed again. It was already known that this figure would not help. (“Petrolde çöküşü önleme telaşı” (The haste to prevent oil collapse), 09/04, AA, Yeni Şafak.) It was not enough to shore up the price and it got to the point of “Black April” scenarios during which oil prices would plummet. (“Petrolde karamsar tahminler” (Pessimistic oil projections), 16/04, Milliyet.) Demand may drop seriously (there are those who say it will be 30 million barrels divided by day) in April, yet it is “hoped” that a $40 goal will be reached after all.
This is the situation but it is not what we are concerned with.
The agreement itself is more valuable than goals/projections! The “OPEC +” agreement goes beyond just oil. It is an indicator of wideband cooperation in world politics post-epidemic, including the U.S.-Russia and China. The agreement paves the way for such cooperation.
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U.S. President Donald Trump held direct meetings with Russia, Saudi Arabia and Mexico’s leaders. The oil deals show that Russia and the U.S., in particular, have come closer through sacrifices.
While the agreement palliated Russia and Saudi Arabia’s concerns (it is estimated that Russia will earn an extra $75 million daily as a result of this agreement), it also made things easier for Trump. This is due to the fact that a likely crisis in the U.S. oil/energy industry, or rather the crisis plummeting to a collapse, would lead to an inflated bill in the election year.
Let us recall a tweet Trump posted last Sunday: “The big Oil Deal with OPEC Plus is done […] I would like to thank and congratulate President Putin of Russia and King Salman of Saudi Arabia […] Great deal for all!”
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The point of this win-win plan that seems simple is that at the center of this agreement, a matrix of understanding was established between Trump and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin!
Putin has clearly grasped how important it is to protect the oil/shale oil industry in order for Trump to remain standing. The industry employs more than 10 million Americans and makes up 7 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (gdp).
Hence, this shows that Russia has a game plan post-epidemic in the event of the presidential elections. In fact, this is an emergency plan that needs to be established by every country.
Trump also has more breathing room in his relations with Russia now. There is no longer any ongoing investigation. Putin is aware of this as well. As a matter of fact, the oil industry, the defense industry-media-finance world have a very powerful influence over the “established order.” Trump’s preservation of the industry’s interests is also silencing these effective segments that are anti-Russia. They are not big fans of Trump, but an oil crisis that may be added to the likelihood of dragging the U.S. economy to rock bottom is intimidating everyone. In any circumstance, the White House seems to have bought itself some time. However, the other side of the coin is that Putin will be receiving a great gesture. This is the reason underlying three Trump-Putin meetings in one week.
The significance of all this is a U.S.-Russia détente!
