“The question to which an answer is being sought most these days is whether Moscow might have been convinced about an ‘Assad-less solution?...’”

The answer to this question which was mentioned by Ibrahim Karagül, the editor-in-chief at Yeni Şafak, in his column yesterday, is of genuine interest to the whole world, and not just for the region.

Let’s take a look…

It is now known that Russia will host the “Syria peace talks” at the end of January, and which will be attended by the Damascus administration and the opposition. This step, on which huge importance was placed by the United Nations representative, Staffan de Mistura, and the Kremlin’s special representative, Mikhail Bogdanov, was taken after intense discussions with the administration in Syria. It came as no surprise to those following the issue, since there was a plan and lots of contacts.

On top of all this, I can state with complete ease that the United States and Russia have had contacts regarding Syria, and that the fate of Damascus was discussed!

Let us now write about the expectations and time frame that Moscow has. “That the opposition groups and Damascus government had a shared approach toward planning these negotiations, followed by unofficial meetings between government representatives and them, is the preparatory groundwork for a sustainable meeting.” (These sentences are a direct quote by Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, made to a French TV station two weeks ago.)

When it is taken into consideration that the U.N. is also somehow included in this diplomatic process, (Lavrov: “Staffan de Mistura has some special plans and we will back his efforts.”) the question of “what happens post Assad” that was on everyone’s minds previously, including Turkey’s, could be considered as a move to put all sides at ease.

This is what Karagül was referring to in his sentence “the Syrian administration’s acceptance of Moscow’s suggestion that it negotiates with the opposition could be the first sign of this.”

Another piece of backdrop information is about the talks held in Egypt concerning the talks set to be held in Moscow. News is emerging that Syrian opposition groups gathered in Cairo and discussed a peace plan. (“Cairo talks focus on bold plan for Syria.” 29/12, Lebanon Daily Star.) On the basis of this, Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç issued a message that tensions between Turkey and Egypt should be reduced, and that Cairo is expected to take the first step in this regard (which has been taken). The quick rapprochement between Qatar and Egypt can also be added to this. (“We need to fix relations with Egypt.” 22/12, Aljazeera Türk.)

If some weird ideas whispered in European Union capitals such as “Assad is a barrier between radicalism and Europe” are ignored, then it could be said that the EU backs the Moscow initiative and the U.N. participation.

The EU also has a secondary expectation as a result of these developments. That is the easing of its economic fears as a consequence of the thaw between Russia and the United States, and the reduction in tensions between Russia and Europe, which it wasn’t very pleased about right from the start. This is why the topic of Syria is also being considered as the “converging” point of two super powers. (We can say that Moscow is already open to this partnership.)

At the time of writing, the United States had not responded to the official Russian announcement regarding these talks to be held in Moscow. We shall see. There are many who interpret this delay as a positive sign.

The following two points can be derived while attempting to second-guess Washington: 1. The White House resisted pressure to “intervene in Syria” that was applied due to America’s internal dynamics. 2. It was reluctant in its sincerity regarding plans to create an opposition force in Syria to confront Damascus.

Then there is ISIL of course… It controls a large swathe of Syria, and is naturally not even included in the Moscow talks. One of the actors won’t be present at the scene but will be active in the field. This means risking it becoming acrimonious.

It is a known fact that the Riyadh administration’s outlook on Syria is linked to Iran. Saudi Arabia, which sees Syria as a tool in its rivalry with Tehran, with its move regarding the price of oil has increased the burden on Tehran, and it seems that, let alone improvement, their relations have become even more strained.

Let me share an important excerpt from an Iranian newspaper that ran under the headline “Saudi Arabia’s last card” about how it “views” the Syria-Saudi Arabia-Moscow process. “The approaching Moscow talks will deal a severe and critical defeat to Saudi plans for toppling Assad. It will be added to Tehran’s victories in Syria.” (“Saudi Arabia’s last card.” 28/12, Iran Daily. This publication is linked to Iran’s religious leader.)

This is the picture that depicts all the balances in general…

A promise far more important than Syria’s and Assad’s future is at stake here. “The unfavorable winds blowing in the region as a whole will be replaced with an atmosphere of calm. It seems that the waves of dissolution will abate slightly given the normalization with Iraq and the search for a joint solution in Syria.”

The issues of Egypt and Cyprus will have to become part of this wave, and even Israel will be forced to become part of it.

Perhaps we can also expect a moment of shame for those who embarked on discrediting the country’s national security and foreign policies in the eyes of the world for the sake of short-term political interests…

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