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The Jugular Vein

We are facing a new situation in progressed negotiations between the U.S. and Russia about the future of Damascus, conducted via Iran and especially the Ukraine, up to the point where ' Who will come if Assad goes' is discussed ('Assad's alternative cannot be explained to us', 14/09, Hürriyet)…



Not everything is going smoothly anymore!


1.Australia and England's excitement to join the coalition operations. 2. The U.S allowing air operations in Syria. 3. The Incirlik Agreement. 4. NATO statements. ('Air strikes alone not enough to defeat İslamic State: NATO chief', 30/01, Reuters.) 5. Russia's attempts to obstruct all political ways out in Syria (including the ones done to strengthen its hand.) 6. Maybe the U.S. Foreign Ministry's mediation between Barzani and PYD. 7. The U.S. Special Forces stepping into Syria with their combat boots for the first time… The above and many other factors were perceived by Russian intelligence services as, “The West is masterminding something considerable in Syria."



And in the end….


"I hope I would not fail anyone by saying some of our counterparts, members of the coalition, say they sometimes have information about where, at which positions the ISIS groups are at, but the coalition's commanders /in the U.S. naturally/ would not accept to deliver a strike. It seems like our American colleagues have different intentions from those they have disclosed to us. There are suspicions that the coalition has objectives other than just battling ISIS. ('US coalition against İslamic State may have different purposes', 13/09, TASS.)



The U.S.'s secret Russia plan: ISIL's secret is cracked


What is the U.S.' secret objective that Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov carefully touched upon in his statement? Also, this statement holds signs that the Kremlin is aware of the West's hidden objectives and that 'anything can happen' if it continues. Under these circumstances it is understood why Russia has been investing in its military in Syria lately and that Russia is trying to get the upper hand in possible negotiations.



Russia is filled with stress as it is leaning on the U.S. and hinting that they know what the U.S. is trying to do and if they continue to do so, this will cause a major problem. Russia opening an air base in Syria means that two major powers will face each other on the war front. What can be more dangerous than this? The jugular vein that makes Russia say this is the “Caucasus and Central Asia." Simply speaking, Moscow is saying that it is aware that the U.S. has placed the ISIL and derivatives into its backyard, and that the spurting of these organizations in Iraq and Syria are a part of the U.S.' agenda. Declaring that they have evidence for all this is a way of intimidating the White House.



What's interesting is that; all the countries in the region combatting this menace have the same suspicions about the organization's mysterious entity and progress. Thus, this can make Russia easily find allies in the Middle East. Despite them all being allies of the U.S. too…



The Syrian refugee crisis realizes a strategic importance at this point and unbalances the European Union and the U.S. (The King handed over the picture of a dead baby on the shore to Obama and… 16/09, Yeni Şafak) A total of 4 million people have migrated from Syria and the U.S. has only housed 10,000!



Is Russia breaking the siege?


Germany's role in Europe's migration politics is ('Germany institutes border controls as vice chancellor says 1 million refugees will come this year', 14/09, Fox.) Washington will be upset about Europe being invited to Syria over the Aylan Kurdi issue after the European Union had a prolonged tension with Russia. We will obviously watch the updates about this issue in the upcoming days. Besides, this will cause pressure on solving the Ukrainian crisis.



If Europe's political minds push Europe to work with Russia during the Syria solution, ISIL issue, the U.S. will enter a tough period in which it will endure political losses, ('Germany's Merkel sees need to cooperate with Russia on Syria 12/09, Reuters.) As a matter of fact, the 2016 election results may create totally different choices.



And as if this isn't enough, if the issue turns into an irrevocable situation, then the U.S. may start cutting the West with its political scissors (with European allies on one side and its Middle East allies including Ankara on the other.) You can start watching the sewing up from the Balkans.



I would like to end my lines with a surprise (as surprise endings are rather fashionable these days): The U.S. might have to renounce ISIL. It would be easy for them to do this in military terms, but would they? When you think of it, ISIL is kind of their 'child'.



I would expect regional organizations and their political derivatives (who were in the air because they were becoming the U.S.' allies) to take lessons from this story.





twitter.com/nedretersanel


#Russia
#US
#ISIL
#Syria
9 years ago
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