That is how Istanbul is. You should not attempt Arabian plots in a city trained to beat Byzantine games.
Riyadh's proposal to establish a joint working group, expressions of gratitude in response to Turkey's acceptance, the Saudi king's call to President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, U.S. President Donald Trump's statements aimed at Turkey - "that should be interpreted more carefully" - U.S. Secretary of State and former CIA boss Mike Pompeo's announcement that he will come to Turkey following his visit to Saudi Arabia and finally, CNN International announcing Monday night that Saudi Arabia is about to declare that journalist “Khashoggi died during interrogation."
They all seem to give an idea about the state of the House of Al Saud.
If Riyadh really does accept the Khashoggi murder, its judicial and diplomatic results will be discussed in a sensational way, but its "strategic outcomes" will be destructive.
If negotiations allow, the famous and ominous "globe coalition" will collapse. Even in the case of the contrary, it is paralyzed. That is what we meant when we wrote and said, "Turkey caught Riyadh by the throat," Now, we need to digest the "big bite"; it caught the U.S. as well.
In other words, we need to understand what state the White House is in too.
Ankara’s silence is not for Arabia
The silent but clear response to all the debates clarifying what the recordings- if there are any- proving that Khashoggi was killed are, with respect to what or how it happened is Turkey not rejecting these claims that have been revealed. What Ankara "has in its hands" was going to make Riyadh fall to its knees anyway, and it did just that. But the real deal is the U.S. The aim behind "internationalizing" the issue, putting up a low profile, minimum talk, but the steady feeding of the foreign press is all the same.
Turkey blinded the eye of the West looking at Saudi Arabia. The Saudi reform being fed to the world is now dead. It is over. Their initiatives leaning on economical, major projects may also stumble - including the Aramco operation, "the biggest public offering in the history of humanity."
We numerously brought up President Trump's "King" speech targeting Saudi Arabia - with which we assume the U.S. has good relations - without any reasonable or obvious reason, but nobody has still understood its connection to the Khashoggi case or the reason. The statement, "King we're protecting you. You won’t last two weeks without us," is double-sided.
He was threatening Riyadh, but "out of fear."
If the alliance collapses, so will the U.S.’s entire Middle East strategy
The connection is that if this happens, it will strike Washington before it does Riyadh. It has nothing to do with reciprocal dependencies; if the alliance dissolves, it will collapse the entire American strategy in the Middle East.
We need to dissect President Trump's statements that started on Sept. 12, while the pastor case was ongoing in Turkey, until today: "This is a splendid step to have a major and special kind of relationship with Turkey. Our thoughts on Turkey today are much different than what yesterday. I guess we have a chance to be much closer with Turkey, to have much much closer relations. Establishing good ties with President Erdoğan is gaining significance."
Are these statements really for a pastor alone?
Regardless of what these statements pledge, everybody immediately saw that they do not mean that the "structural/strategic" problems between the two countries, which consists of a long list of matters, will be solved.
The U.S. would not even lift a finger for problems between the two countries. However, if Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates' (UAE) direct and indirect crimes in the Khashoggi case are revealed and confessed - which is the direction it is headed - the investigation, at least the political trials will lead to Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner, and everybody can be sure that this will create a great risk for the White House in the U.S. elections to be held in early November. This is the Washington Post factor.
Likewise, the U.S. president's statement, "These may be rouge killers," protecting all those responsible, is also telling.
The fear is that "The United Nations asked to lift the immunity of the Saudi Arabian consul general and consulate personnel to shed light on the Khashoggi case." (AA, Oct. 16, 2018)
Did you hear anything about Turkey taking steps in this direction?
Who is doing it?
"Building good ties with President Erdoğan is gaining significance," because it seems impossible for the UAE, Israel, Egypt, Saudi Arabia alliance and those behind them to bring any order to the region, or even suggest something as such.
The people of the nations listed are also aware that their countries are being dragged by the U.S. to protect Israel and crush Iran.
Who knows what Ankara wants?
What the U.S. and its affiliated countries want is crystal clear. Nobody knows what Turkey is going to demand from this point onward. This is what Pompeo might be wondering a little.
The meeting between U.S. and Turkish chiefs of General Staff at a time when Saudi Arabia's confession, or rather the speculations that it is going to throw the blame on the impertinent personnel at the consulate peaked, is interesting, at least in terms of timing.
Defense Minister Hulusi Akar's statement on Manbij and Idlib, simultaneous with Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoğlu yesterday morning saying, "Either you clean it up or we will," signifies an intense meaning for the short time span. Additionally, it can now be more distinctly sensed that on the verge of sanctions on Iran, there may be room for Turkey to object saying "we are out" in advance.