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What do the three superpowers have to say about Turkey’s deal with Libya?

President Erdoğan telling the U.S. that he might shut down Kürecik and İncirlik military bases is a sign of what Washington will be up against in the case that sanctions are imposed on Ankara...

No matter what the wings of the U.S. Congress say, at the end of the day the president has to make a decision.

Due to the fact that figures in Congress are on opposing sides of the internal politics schism, it is clear that this conflict will lead to anti-Turkey decisions (as was the case with the Armenian bill).

Ankara is of the mind that Trump will block these resolutions. If he does not, then İncirlik and Kürecik, which block attacks against NATO and the U.S., will this time stop the US.

Such a situation will lead to the complete erosion of the U.S.’s depth perception in the Middle East and for NATO’s capabilities to drown when it comes up against Russia.

The American presence in Syria and Iraq, its influence on Iran will become “untenable.” Chaos will follow: how will they be unable to defend their terror partners, transfer nuclear weapons or calculate how Israel will be affected?

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Keeping the chaos contained does not seem possible under the present circumstances. However it is possible to list the possible outcomes and discuss their blind spots.

For example, how will the maritime deal struck with Libya impact the big players of the game?

Will it help Beijing?

When you pressure Greece from the sea will you have threatened China's strategic investments in this country? China is in control of an extremely significant Greek port. The Israeli-Haifa port will be operated by the Chinese from 2021 onward.

Will the deal benefit Moscow?

How will Russia perceive the ”Canal Istanbul” project if it is ousted from the Greek Cyprus region?

Will it see its 300-year dream of a presence in Syria and the Mediterranean through the mirror of Libya?

Will it benefit Washington?

When Ankara considers the players in the Mediterranean individually, it is of the opinion that they could be brought into the fold by the U.S.

Rogue elements in Libya, Egypt, Greece, the Southern Greek administration of Cyprus and Israel! But first, the U.S.’s hand has to be forced. And that’s what’s being done!

Hence, a carrot-stick approach is being implemented across the entire region, primarily Greece. Athens is very much aware of this situation. Pay no mind to the Greek media which is attacking everyone in sight.

The Greek Foreign Ministry, the Defense Ministry and the Prime Ministry have all grasped the situation. That's why their statements are meek and they keep the door open.

Most important of all is Israel. Local press lauded the fact that our navy obstructed a seismic vessel belonging to Israel, however the agenda of the foreign media is a Mediterranean rapport between Israel and Turkey, the accuracy of which hasn’t been 100 percent confirmed.

This is really a vital matter; just like it is doing with Greece, what if Ankara is both increasing the pressure and sending Israel a message saying, “Look, you can’t do this without me. You know it too. But all doors suddenly open with my presence. We can discuss matters when you finally form a government”...

The entire Mediterranean could be transformed into “Blue Homeland”!

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The Egyptian problem will sort itself out. So much so that the Cairo administration has swiftly seen the light. It immediately announced that it would not take sides in the tension between Greece and Turkey. With the developments in Libya, it began to closely monitor the situation.

We should be able to describe Turkey’s “pressure”; a third drilling vessel being deployed, the navy's narrowing of more and more areas, the armed drone deployments to Cyprus-Lefkoniko, the hindering of all ships approaching the area, warnings and open invitations to international private companies (!), the continuation of the military drills and a series of other measures are all a part of it.

This pressure is systematic and constantly being exacerbated. “Power is being able to materialize what you promise,” and Ankara is showing that it’s ready for this.

Statements along the lines of “We upended all plans similar to the Treaty of Sevres in the Mediterranean,” “The line of the Libya agreement passes through the east of Crete,” and "We can't even exercise our own legal rights in the Bosporus" blatantly show that both influence and pressure are being strongly implemented.

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In this context, energy and its routes will be discussed.

The “reserve information” announced by the Minister for Economy and Energy of the TRNC Hasan Taçoy to the Milliyet newspaper (16/12) for the first time is important; "So far, gas reserves estimated at 107 trillion cubic feet (TCF) have been discovered in the region. A total of 4 quadrillion TCF gas reserves have also been detected.

These aren’t just random figures. For them to become operational and reach Europe, a multilateral cooperation is in order. If proven successful there will naturally be political outcomes as well!

In addition to the TANAP and TurkStream projects, a Turkey- Israel energy cooperation (such an initiative was already made and developed) will take things to a whole new level.

However, Israel first needs to take a step back on certain issues!

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There are now signs of a special meeting, where hot topics like the Mediterranean, Syria, Iraq, Iran and the Deal of the century will be discussed.

The Kremlin stated that President Trump could hold a meeting in January with Putin in Israel. The real main issue on the agenda will be the “region”. Its intro was made during the meeting at the White House conducted between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo as well as Donald Trump.

Today it was announced that Erdoğan and Putin would meet up in January to discuss deploying troops to Libya!

Let us not forget that the EU, NATO, Russia, China and the U.S. have also remained silent on the deal struck with Libya.

#Libya
#Turkey
#maritime deal
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