We've often emphasized that the Gaza issue is not limited to Gaza alone and that the war is being conducted with the aim of regional expansion. The mindset currently governing Israel is actively moving to implement a project they term "Greater Israel," even if it means confronting global conscience. The United States, the United Kingdom, and the EU are, in some way, part of this process.
Looking at the situation geopolitically, there is no power in the region that can prevent Israel's bloody move. The Arab world, bordering Israel, seems to be playing the role of the Three Monkeys, turning a blind eye. The Gulf, especially the UAE and Saudi Arabia, has consistently adhered to the Abraham Accords since the beginning, stating that even if Gaza is demolished, they will not change their stance. Jordan doesn't even deserve serious consideration, and Egypt remains in deep silence, concerned only with preventing a Palestinian influx through the Rafah Border.
The only resisting force in the equation appears to be Iran and the geographical area referred to as the Shia Crescent. Noticeably, since the beginning of the HAMAS resistance on October 7, Hezbollah and Iran have clearly stated that they have no connection to the conflict and do not want to be part of the war. Only the Houthi elements in Yemen, far away, openly declared war on Israel, leading to the closure of the Red Sea. The US-Houthi war seems to be unfolding in a somewhat comical and trivial way, not something I take seriously.
Israel is persistently trying to involve Iran in the war, perhaps framed as "Israel wanting to finish Iran." However, upon calm reflection, it becomes clear that this goal might not be beneficial for Israel at all. Suppose, hypothetically, Iran is dragged into war. Let's say the Iran-Israel war has started. Technically, Israel cannot win this war alone without involving the United States and its allies. In fact, we might even say that Israel is closer to losing this war. Judging from the U.S.'s cautious stance, expressing concerns like "Let the war not spread," we can infer that the U.S. might not favor this possibility. More importantly, even if Israel were to win a full-scale Israel-Iran war, Israel would actually be the loser. Israel needs Iran to implement the Greater Israel project. If there were to be a real showdown between Israel and Iran, it could only happen after Israel establishes absolute dominance in that region. Frankly, I don't consider this very likely. I believe Israel's primary goal is to take control of the strategic areas of Lebanon and Syria. A war between Israel and Hezbollah wouldn't surprise me, but even if such a development occurred, Iran would not directly engage in the conflict. While challenging, Iran might successfully keep the war at bay by activating its affiliated elements in Syria and Iraq. This unstable zone would play a crucial role for Israel. On the one hand, it would allow Israel to continue its perpetual enemy, Iran; on the other hand, it would turn conflicts between Israel-supported Kurdish forces and Iran-backed groups like the Hashd al-Shaabi into a blood feud. Injecting a religious dimension, transforming the issue from a Sunni-Shia matter to a straightforward Turkish-Kurdish conflict, is also possible. In the end, both Israel and Iran would find relief within this equation. This potential scenario is much more serious for Türkiye. The fact that Israel intends to use this sharp tool as a double-edged sword is my belief. Yes, it seems apparent that they will operate this tool against Iran in the beginning, but we can be sure that, over time, it will be turned against Türkiye. For Türkiye and Iran to adopt a joint stance, I have reservations. Iran would not object to Türkiye being one of the sides applying pressure on the PYD region to alleviate pressure on itself. Furthermore, Iran would not oppose the matter evolving over time from a Sunni-Shia conflict to a direct Turkish-Kurdish confrontation.
Developments, especially the escalation of Israel-Türkiye tension, do not bode well. The incidents in Iraq, resulting in the painful loss of our soldiers, indicate this. In Israel, the perception of Iran as a threat is evident; however, Israeli authorities and the supporting Israeli public are increasingly intensifying the perception and assessment that "the real enemy is Türkiye." We need to see this. The former is a staged fight; the latter is a sharp and increasingly prominent concrete reality.
