The potential for the spread of instability and conflicts leading to war in a certain geography of the world is a question that is often answered in general terms and somewhat simplistically. These predictions or forecasts may turn out to be correct, but it is important not to see them as an immutable rule. The effects of geopolitical triggers are not always as narrow as they may seem.

Let's think about it: Starting from the early 1990s, we followed the collapse of the Soviet Bloc, perceiving it as a collapse into the Eastern Bloc. However, today we understand that the central dynamics of the collapse were essentially in the West, not the East. Both the West and the East were implementing different models of bureaucratic capitalism within the integrity of the World System. The collapse starting in the Soviet Union was related to the formation of the most rigid and fragile pattern of state-bureaucratic capitalism. The symbol of decay in the East, Chernobyl, is equivalent to the nuclear leakage in Minnesota, albeit cheaper. The scenes produced by the decaying infrastructure system in the United States, which has become unusable in many places and cannot be renewed, do not differ from the landscape of Soviet infrastructure in the 1990s. The only difference is the time gap. The West, starting from the 1980s, began to dismantle its institutions of bureaucratic capitalism with Hayekian, Buchananian, Laingian theses, and leaders like Thatcher and Reagan. In a sense, the dangers that destroyed the Soviets actually came from their own grounds and would eventually hit them too. Of course, they couldn't do it and made things even worse. Today, no one can claim that neoliberals have been able to continue the atmosphere of the 1990s.

We see a similar scenario in the process of the spread of wars. Those who thought that the war, starting with an assassination in the Balkans on the road to the Great War I and believed to be limited between Serbia and the Habsburgs, were greatly mistaken. The end reached Yemen. Similarly, in 1939, who could predict that the invasion of Poland by Nazi Germany would turn into a terrible reckoning causing the deaths of millions and extending to Africa and the Pacific?

Today, the same possibilities exist. Who could predict that the Russia-Ukraine war would lead to Gaza? Many of us thought that the Gaza war would trigger Ukraine-Russia, spread to Lebanon, turn towards Syria and Iraq, and evolve into an Iran-Israel confrontation. But that didn't happen. Suddenly, Bab-el-Mandeb got involved. Yemen got involved. Following that, the Red Sea closed to world trade.

Pressures from Israel and the U.S. against Iran increased rapidly. I wrote that this was a staged fight. Reports of serial assassinations of leading figures of forces loyal to Iran in Iraq and Syria came. Not enough; Iran, which was trapped and made forty circus acts to avoid getting involved in the war, was shot from within during the sabotage at the commemoration ceremony of Qasem Soleimani. ISIS claimed responsibility for the sabotage. But Iran, with a strange exit for many circles, hit Pakistan, which it described as "friend and brother," a week ago in a joint naval exercise. In response, Pakistan hit Iran. The story took place in a land known as Beluchistan, which is divided between Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan, as a result of the work of the British mind. The scene was really strange. Iran was stationed in Pakistan's Beluchistan and hit Jaish-ul Adl, which was fighting against it. Pakistan, on the other hand, stationed in Iran's Beluchistan, was hitting the Baluchistan Liberation Army fighting against it. Suddenly, the agenda changed. Just as Gaza made us forget the Ukraine-Russia war, the Pakistan-Iran tension made us forget Gaza. Iran and Pakistan have close relations with China, both having their applications accepted, and their membership in BRICS confirmed. However, this was interrupted, and the tension was prevented from turning into war. But spilled water doesn't collect. A rift has now formed in this geography.

All these geopolitical developments need to be evaluated through global trade networks. The primary concern of Atlantic powers is to gain full control in the Baltic, create a new trade route in the Arctic, eliminating Russia, and cut China's logistics. The second is to cut off the economic and energy line between the EU and Russia. This is the main reason for putting so much pressure on Russia.

Now, let's look at the part of the process that holds the Middle East. In OPEC, they wanted to bring Saudi Arabia, which deals with Russia against the Atlantic, has close relations with China, is moving closer to Pakistan, and has deepened economic relations with Iran through the Abraham Agreement, into line. In short, there is a line developing through China-Pakistan-Saudi Arabia. The situation of Iran is extremely striking. While everyone thinks that Iran is agreeing with China, Iran has competed with Gwadar port and elevated the Chabahar port controlled by India. In other words, Iran is playing a double game. It stands closer to India, which competes with China and approaches the Atlantic. The clustering here is shaping up around the India-Iran axis and strangely connecting with Israel and Armenia in the West. That is, India's geopolitical strategy, which competes with China and approaches the Atlantic, brings together Israel and Iran, who have blood feuds in the Middle East. The Trade Route announced at the last G-20 that connects the Indian economy with the Haifa Port also progresses by trimming China's openings in the Middle East and, interestingly, includes Iran in history's twist. The clustering here is developing with the cooperation of Armenia and Iran with high-level Indian support. This is actually a blow to China's Central Corridor. It should not be forgotten that the turmoil in Iraq is aimed at discarding the Development Road, which is behind China. In short, evaluating the Pakistan-Iran tension as a blow to China through the developing Atlantic-India alliance is not an exaggeration. The sides holding Türkiye in this issue deserve a separate article.