What lies ahead for Türkiye as tensions continue to mount in Ukraine?

SÜLEYMAN SEYFI ÖĞÜN,  Thursday 09:41, 22 September 2022

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s declaration of mobilization escalated yet another process that seems impossible to reverse. The UN assembly was perhaps the last chance to reverse the process. In one of his most recent statements, risking the likelihood that it may be interpreted as his acceptance of defeat, Putin declared Russia is in favor of ending the war. In his meeting with President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit, it is likely that Putin mentioned he is ready for peace negotiations through Türkiye and the UN. Thus, Türkiye carried over the peace bid to the UN, and through President Erdogan, at the highest level, it was openly declared Russia is ready and will do whatever is due upon him. Yet, there was not even the slightest sign of support for Erdogan’s attempt on the corrupted foundations of this dilapidated institute. This is what Putin was most likely expecting. Without wasting any time, he announced a referendum will be held in order for the region – firstly Donbas – to join Russia. It is not difficult to understand the likely attacks the Ukrainian military will conduct to save Donbas following this referendum – which the result is obvious in advance – will be considered to be conducted against Russia, and change the dimensions of the war. With this step, Russia created a position that would make Ukraine aggressive. In a sense, he is pulling out the ground from under Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s administration. We must admit that this operation is a quite successful step. Russia has Kosovo as a trump. It will neutralize any objections from the West by signaling Kosovo. Putin is aware that when Donbas joins Russia, the West will heighten its attacks. Hence, wasting no time, in a historic speech to the Russian public, Putin declares partial mobilization. It should be noted that the Russian military, which has invaded 20 percent of Ukraine, withdrew from certain areas within the frame. Russia determined with this move the borders it will consolidate. 


At the current point, it can be said that Russia has positioned itself for war. Putin would previously refrain from expressing Russia’s military intervention using the term war, and in fact, would suppress any analyses in this regard with anger. We now see there is no longer any embargo on the war term, and that Russia officially declared that the climate is a war climate. Putin’s Russia is standing up against the West with determination and readiness to welcome all sorts of developments, including nuclear war. To put it more openly, Russia burned all bridges and is taking all risks. As for some journalists in our media, who are unable to look around and see anything other than the controlled news reports published in Western media, they are writing that Russia failed to get what it wanted from China and India at the SCO summit, that Putin was defeated, and that he wouldn’t even be able to survive until the morning. They are continuing to make the same mistakes as the Western press, which has no idea about Russia or Russian culture (spirit). This makes them fall dramatically behind the events. 


In the meantime, the West is doing everything in its power to encourage the escalation, and intensify the showdown at the world scale. New military aid packages based on state-of-the-art technology are being sent out to Ukraine, one after the other. As if this was not enough, U.S. President Joe Biden is disregarding the One China policy, and saying they will militarily defend Taiwan against China. In other words, he is literally threatening China. 


What significance do these developments have with respect to Türkiye? There are efforts to pull Türkiye away from Russia. This process may be further expedited in the upcoming days. Turkish businesspeople and banks are being threatened to end relations with Russia and adhere to sanctions. It would be surprising if anyone still hopes Türkiye will receive the F-16s. Quite the contrary, Greece and South Cyprus continue to be militarily fortified against Türkiye. The straits (Montreux) and North Cyprus are under serious threat. A war between Türkiye and Greece is at the door. U.S. House of Representatives Speaker Ms. Nancy Disaster Pelosi is visiting Yerevan simultaneously. Azerbaijan and Türkiye are being blamed in the Caucasus. The sleeping West cells in Georgia are being woken up. 


The line starting from the Baltics down to East Mediterranean through Crete, which excludes Türkiye, is now reaching South Cyprus through a horizontal line, including Israel and Egypt as well. Without stopping at this, it goes back up to the Caucasus, to Yerevan. It would not be an exaggeration to say that Türkiye is under complete siege. This is where Russia included Greece and South Cyprus on the list of anti-Russia states. There is no trace left today of the once close relations it had with South Cyprus. New equations are forming. The cooperation between Türkiye, Russia, and Azerbaijan in the Caucasus is the sole chance to spoil the U.S. and France’s plots and negate Iran’s plans. It might be rational to re-evaluate North Cyprus through this equation. If the news is true, Russia’s launch of commercial flights to North Cyprus is meaningful. We have to be quick to reinforce our air forces, which got into a bind against Greece. As for the subject of Syria, Türkiye and Russia must make a new deal. As the temperature rises,  the course of events is driving Türkiye and Russia, two states that were expelled from the West, to cooperate on mutual interests. Putin and Erdogan met three times in the last two months – not including the telephone calls. Now let’s ask: How many Western leaders knocked on Türkiye’s door during this period? 



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