What's the reason behind Saudi Arabia's warm welcome of Syria's Ahmed Shara?

As expected, Syrian President Ahmed Shara made his first foreign visit to Saudi Arabia. In Riyadh, he met with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, after which he and his delegation traveled to Mecca to perform the Umrah pilgrimage. In line with its tradition of extending special courtesies to distinguished foreign guests, the Saudi leadership made a notable gesture to Shara: the doors of the Kaaba were opened, allowing him and his delegation to pray inside.

Observers of recent Middle Eastern history couldn’t help but ask a crucial question: Why is Saudi Arabia showing Ahmed Shara a level of warmth and support that it never extended to the Muslim Brotherhood government that came to power in Egypt after 2011? After all, Egypt’s then-President Mohamed Morsi had also made Saudi Arabia his first foreign destination.

A closer look at regional dynamics and recent developments suggests several reasons behind Riyadh’s differing approaches:

Filling the Vacuum Left by Iran: Following the collapse of the Baathist regime in Syria, Saudi Arabia is eager to establish influence before other regional players do. In Egypt, however, no such power vacuum existed. On the contrary, the emergence of a civilian government in a military-dominated system disrupted long-standing internal balances.

The Nature of Regime Change: In Syria, the transition to a new government occurred through armed groups seizing power, making them the dominant force in the country. As a result, the only viable partners for external actors like Saudi Arabia are the new rulers. In Egypt, supporting the Muslim Brotherhood would have meant directly opposing the military establishment.

Experience in Governance: Ahmed Shara and his team gained administrative experience governing Idlib before taking power, giving them practical know-how despite the vastly different realities of ruling Damascus. The Muslim Brotherhood, on the other hand, had been banned since the 1950s and was entirely excluded from the political system, leaving them with no governance experience. Handing over a country as geopolitically significant as Egypt—one that also has a peace treaty with Israel—to inexperienced leadership was seen as a major risk.

Pragmatism Over Ideology: The new Syrian leadership is focused on rebuilding a war-torn country and aims to maintain balanced relations with all regional powers. It has no ideological agenda or ambition to export its ideas. In contrast, the Muslim Brotherhood’s ideological influence could have spread across the broader Islamic world, a prospect that Saudi Arabia found concerning.

The Shara Family’s Political and Social Standing: Ahmed Shara is not just a former militia leader—he hails from the same family as Farouk Shara, Syria’s long-serving foreign minister. The Shara family has strong political and business connections, and Ahmed Shara’s wife, Latifa Durubi, comes from a prominent lineage in Homs. The Durubi family has been part of the region’s elite since Ottoman times. By contrast, the Muslim Brotherhood lacked individuals with comparable social and political stature in Egypt’s power structure.

The Middle East is a region where geopolitical alignments shift rapidly. Since states craft policies based on their strategic interests, it is entirely possible that, in the future, Saudi Arabia may reengage with the Muslim Brotherhood or even sit at the same table with Hamas. There are precedents for such shifts, and they may happen again.

These latest developments serve as a reminder that, when analyzing the region, it is crucial to constantly reassess evolving power dynamics. The Middle East is like a giant chessboard, where multiple players make simultaneous moves against one another. Success isn’t just about making the right move—it’s also about anticipating the opponent’s next steps.