Behind the scenes of the Damascus agreement: Trump is in a rush

In English, we say something is “Too good to be true.” That’s exactly how it feels. Kandil announced it would comply with the İmralı call. The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) sat down with Damascus. Just look at the situation—if there weren’t forty years of baggage behind the scenes, we’d be celebrating. But we’ve learned the hard way that early excitement can come with a heavy price. So, we remain cautious.

The agreement signed by Syrian President Shara and the SDF’s Abdi Şahin covers a wide scope. Both those saying *“A federation will be established in Syria”* and those claiming *“The SDF has surrendered”* point to the same document. But what are the sources saying? I’ll get to that—but first, it’s important to lay out what Damascus and the SDF want and what they’ve agreed to.

Just five days after Assad was overthrown, Foreign Minister Fidan made a statement:

*"PKK cadres must leave the country. The remaining members must disarm. Eliminating the YPG is our strategic objective."*

On the same day, he highlighted another key concern:

*"As the YPG is eliminated, the Kurdish population in the region must not be harmed."*

But who was going to make this happen, and how? At Damascus’ request, Ankara emphasized that the primary responsibility lay with the Syrian government. During President Erdoğan’s meeting with Syrian Foreign Minister Sheybani, the message was clear:

*"Combating terrorism in Syria is now the responsibility of the new administration. We are ready to offer our support."*

Fidan echoed this stance on January 10th:

*"The SDF will either transform into something else or disappear altogether. We’re not committed to using force for the sake of violence."*

In other words, Ankara chose to give diplomacy a chance—with the goal of dismantling the PKK without firing a single bullet. This approach led to increased pressure on the PKK near Tishrin while negotiations between Damascus and the SDF got underway. Shara’s statement confirming the talks is dated December 29th.

The SDF is the Syrian branch of the PKK. Its primary aim was to establish a "terror corridor" in Syria. As the regional dynamics shifted last year, they scrambled to formalize their power through a so-called election. That plan was blocked. When the regime fell, they realized they had no choice but to resolve the issue within Syria.

To bolster the SDF’s position, the U.S. facilitated talks among Kurdish groups—first in Syria, then in northern Iraq. The goal was to form a unified Kurdish bloc to negotiate with the new Syrian administration—and to some extent, it worked.

From there, the SDF began presenting their demands to Damascus. They wanted a decentralized, federal structure and international guarantees (such as a demilitarized zone under U.S. protection or having French or American forces monitor the Türkiye-Syria border). They opposed transferring control of ISIS camps to Damascus, demanded a share of energy resources, and insisted on integrating into the Syrian army as a bloc—with a two-year transition period.

Despite years of resistance, the SDF suddenly agreed to negotiate. Several factors likely influenced this shift:

- U.S. Pressure: Washington is signaling a strong desire to withdraw from Syria and is pushing the SDF to negotiate.

- Weapons Recall: The U.S. military has already begun retrieving some of the weapons it previously supplied to the PKK.

- European Signals: EU countries, including France, have issued statements in support of Damascus, while some sanctions have been suspended.

- Gulf Backing: Gulf states have decided to provide financial support to Damascus.

- Regional Cooperation: At Türkiye’s initiative, Syria’s neighboring countries (Türkiye, Jordan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon) have backed the Shara administration and established a joint operations center against ISIS.

- Imralı’s Call: The PKK’s leadership on İmralı Island has publicly called for the group to disarm.

President Erdoğan commented, *“The full implementation of this agreement will serve Syria’s security and stability.”* But what else are analysts saying? Here’s a breakdown:

1. End of the "Terror Corridor": The SDF has formally accepted Syria’s territorial integrity. With the momentum shifting in Damascus’ favor, reversing course will be difficult.

2. Türkiye’s Watchful Eye: Türkiye will monitor the agreement’s implementation over the next nine months. This means the SDF’s integration into the Syrian army is postponed until the end of the year—short of the two years the SDF requested.

3. Restricted SDF Actions: The agreement prevents the SDF from using its weapons against Türkiye. Any future attack would violate the terms.

4. U.S. Urgency: The agreement paves the way for a swift U.S. withdrawal from Syria—something the Biden administration appears eager to achieve.

5. A Coming Crisis? If the SDF does not integrate into the Syrian army by the end of the year, a genuine crisis could erupt.

The agreement does not alter Türkiye’s military position in Syria—Turkish forces will remain, and operations will continue as long as SDF members remain armed. In the coming days, we can expect intensified military visits between Ankara and Damascus, along with discussions about enhancing the Syrian army’s capabilities through joint training.

Additionally, there may be developments concerning the Süleyman Shah Tomb after the Eid holiday in April.