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Even if the cards change, the players are still the same

Soon we will see if we can pick up from where we have left off.


Let’s see how fast the train, which hasn’t been chugging along much for a while now, will be able to move in the Resolution Process after November 30.


For now, we don’t have the data available to us in order to understand this; however, we have sufficient possibilities.


The result of HDP parliamentarian İdris Baluken’s meeting in Qandil stands as the first and crucial data.


The committee, in which Baluken is included, will travel to İmralı Island (Öcalan) and deliver this message.


Meanwhile, it’s been claimed that DTK’s Co-Chairman Hatip Dicle and Democratic Independent Movement’s activist Ceylan Bağrıyanık have also been included in the Imrali-bound committee, planning to visit on November 30.


However, as of today, with a mutual agreement, it had become definite that Bağrıyanık will not be included in the committee. In other words, the committee consists of four people.


After the meeting, Öcalan’s evaluation will become clear.


Of course, the expectations lean in the direction of an encouraging announcement.


Besides, this is not all. A declaration aimed at “a calling and performance in the direction of disarmament without adding new conditions”, which had been persistently emphasized by Ankara since October 6-8, is expected.


This is the part related with us.


However, the October 6-8 incidents had shown us that, no matter if we like it or not, some others have invisible chairs around the table.


Moreover, not just October 6-8, but also, priorly, when the cantons in northern Syria had been declared, the PKK was acting like “conditions have changed, cards are being reshuffled”, and their components had had the process put on the brake on their behalf.


Even though we didn’t desire it, the Kurdish issue is still intensively open with the international effects. Iran is a factor in the Middle East tumult that we are experiencing. Of course, they don’t want us to continue with the Resolution Process, and they are providing every kind of logistical aid. Their intimate relation with the USA, because of nuclear negotiations, is also speeding up the process of Qandil’s digression from the Resolution Process.


The USA and the West, and their partners in the Middle East are damaging the process, even if indirectly, with their attitudes and preferences just outside our borders.


Thus, there is an existing and important external factor, which will designate; whether we can come to terms between us or not; the duration of this; whether similar accidents and provocations existed or not.


Within this frame, Syria and Iraq’s future and ISIL’s condition is quite indicative.


A new scenario, which is clear to be on the top of the agenda this week, is being cooked up in the United Nations; a ceasefire between the sides in Syria…


Due to the fact that there will be no bloodshed, the ceasefire is a handle that should always be defended in any platform.


However, the Baas administration had proven to us throughout history, that after getting strong and resting, the post-ceasefire amounts to more bloody operations than today.


Furthermore, for example, there is no guarantee that they won’t shift their brigades from Aleppo to the south and squash the opposing side there. All these will be abandoned to their faiths during the ceasefire period, and as the opposing side gets weaker, they will have the opportunity to conduct this at the same time.


Ultimately, these are developments that will evolve towards a war between the organization, which sees ISIL as the single enemy and with such point of view Al Nusra and the likes will be joining them inevitably, and the alliance of the all the remaining people.


The meaning of this is guaranteeing the position of the regime even more, weakening the opposition, and leaving Syria to writhe within the state of disintegration that will continue for a long time.


At the same time, we shouldn’t forget about the new villages and towns, which they keep on threatening with the regions under their control and with their ISIL operations in Iraq.


When this is how things are, it becomes clear that Qandil, who is more sensitive to the international developments, pays attention to them and is outside our borders, and is not sitting alone at the table. Rather, they are sitting with many other actors.


Because of this, the possible statement from Qandil is crucial.


The other important thing after this is the new developments that would be experienced in the Middle East.


Despite everything, Ankara, who is on the other side of the table, is forming the heavier side of the balance against all these equilibriums, burdens and crowds. Because of its sides, which we find insufficient, and our ideological attitude and polemics within the daily politics, we keep forgetting about the Republic of Turkey’s role and authority, as a state, in the stage regarding its own issues and region. Only in the past 10 days, there are dozens of visitors, who are boarding the planes in order to visit Turkey or who already did. The Vice President of the USA, Biden, and President of Russia, Putin and the Pope being included in the numbers of visitors is not traffic that should be taken lightly.


It’s beneficial to remind everyone; what’s being frequently re-distributed are just the cards.


Not the players…


GOOD NEWS:
Until yesterday, we were working with Mustafa Karaalioğlu, Yusuf Ziya Cömert, and Mehmet Ocaktan in the same institution. Besides, Karaalioğlu was my administrator. Now, getting together in the same newspaper as journalists is gratifying. It’s also their home; thus, it is not for me to say, however, it’s a tradition:
“Welcome”.
#middle east
#game
#player
#cards
#Turkey
#reconciliation process
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