BAKU
Without a doubt, Donald Trump is the bluntest of all U.S. presidents to date. With his words, he is removing all the elegant veils over U.S. foreign policy, taking off all the masks and laying bare the world view of a great power with all its contradictions in all its terribleness.
He is also confessing to all of the U.S.'s thefts with his brave candor. He is saying that from now on, we will only be helping the countries that are our friends. In saying that the U.S. must think only about its own interests, that it should not waste its energy on protecting other countries, he implies that things were different until today, yet despite his frankness, this part is far from the truth. He is simply reflecting how both he himself or Americans view the matter.
It is an obvious fact that the U.S. has never been involved in anything unless it is eyeing gains.
What bothers Trump is that other nations and states are also making gains with the U.S.'s international relations. He has set his sights not on his own profits but on the profits of his ally, like a greedy partner. Yet, his own gains are linked to the gains of his ally. If his partner does not win, neither will he.
Is such greediness not the reason why so many partnerships in the business world are ruined? Regardless of how much rationality develops, people cannot fully escape these simple, archaic, primitive feelings, ambition and jealousy in relations.
Even though business between states should carry on otherwise and on a more rational foundation, much different factors step in, activating the ambition and jealousy we are familiar with. It may also be referred to as national ambition and national jealousy.
The international relations logic to disregard globalization by the U.S. ruled by the Trump administration that has decided to “give up on it” is a trade in which no one other than the U.S. will profit. It is impossible even in everyday trade to continue an exchange in which one side alone profits.
Does globalization really end with this stance? Let us focus on this question later. But the U.S.'s attitude, in a sense, demonstrates that we are on the verge of a new world order.
There can be no transformation without globalization. As a matter of fact, globalization is now a process that continues despite the U.S., but its direction will be determined with the activity of likely international actors.
We have been in Baku for the last two days for the Strategic Congress about the Caucasus, which was organized in collaboration by the Institute of Strategic Thinking, Turkish International Cooperation and Development Agency (TİKA), Turkish Historical Institution and the Azerbaijan Institute of History. The Caucasus is an expansive region that is one of the world's most important geographies; it is an area that has the capacity to meet the energy demand for a vast region spanning from China to Europe. However, due to this quality, its peace and stability are constantly targeted, similarly to the Middle East.
If the oil and natural gas of the Caucasus can securely reach Europe, China and India, it would ensure total stability for the region and may revive the peoples of this area.
Yet, a closer look shows that such a development that will benefit all countries with energy resources is considered a threat for Russia, which wants to control the energy demand by itself.
Thus, a Caucasus that struggles with unresolvable matters and fails to become integrated is considered by Russia as a means of ensuring its own security. The problem caused by supporting Armenia’s occupation of Karabakh in spite of Azerbaijan has functioned as the perfect problem-solution by preventing Azerbaijani and Kazakh oil from reaching Turkey and Europe via Turkey.
One of the participants of the meeting has forged an Israel from Armenia and a Palestine from Karabakh for the region. Similarly, the role Israel and Palestine play for peace in the Middle East are played by Armenia in this way. Armenia remains an obstacle averting the integration of the entire region with the lands it invaded.
Ensuring this integration is to lead to the establishment of a new world, and this opportunity is available on the horizon of the Turkey and Russia’s cooperation. Therefore, the paradigm must change. It needs to re-plan its own military or economy security not with the aim of preventing the development of regional actors, but to pave the way for them and lead to their expansion.
Even though Russia has no need to form a monopoly over oil demand, it buys oil and natural gas from countries like Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan so that these countries do not feel the need to create their own alternatives for demand. This is a high-cost act for itself too, and because of this monopolistic logic it cannot attempt a leadership that enables confidence for the peoples of the region. One of the alternative routes is the Caspian and Baku-Tbilsi-Ceyhan line.
Yet now there is a new conjuncture available. A new world in which everybody will profit depends on the Caucasus's cooperation with Turkey and Russia. The world has seen how the recent rapport and cooperation between the two countries has led to a solution appreciated by all. This cooperation must become more strategic and be carried to a more founding level.
There is a multi-ethnic structure in Caucasus, but cultural common points are prevalent. It does not matter at all. Just as cultural closeness is no guarantee that cooperation will work better, differences are also no obstacles against living together. Europe fought among itself for centuries despite all their cultural common points. Yet today, a union that has been working quite well despite all differences, has shown its practicality. There is no reason that the Caucasus cannot be the same.
The Caucasus needs to be viewed as a region of opportunities rather than a region of problems.
The Institute of Strategic Thinking has done a good job with respect to this field with its renewed staff. The two day congress was productive. The past, present and future of the Caucasus was discussed in all aspects with a strategic vision by participants from all Caucasus countries, primarily Turkey, Russia and Azerbaijan.
