U.S. President Donald Trump delivered a decision about a matter that had long been the subject of curiosity and announced that he would withdraw from the nuclear pact signed during by the Barack Obama administration with Iran. Israel launching military operations in Syria, the statements issued by Saudi Arabia simultaneously with this decision, and the military equipment sold to Gulf countries on the U.S.-Saudi Arabia axis ahead of this decision brought to mind the question: Has the diplomatic clashes that have been ongoing with Iran for years now reached the point of turning into close combat?
The agreement reached between Iran and the U.N.’s five permanent members as well as Germany in 2015 in relation to Iran’s nuclear program was a development that spurred great excitement among the international community and was hailed by numerous observers as the greatest diplomatic success in the post-Cold War period. The agreement was designed to pave the way for Iran’s inclusion in diplomatic processes.
In short, the nuclear pact enabled the easing of sanctions applied to Iran by the West in return for making certain concessions to its nuclear program, and following this, Iran signed various service and product purchases with international firms and was represented at the top level across assorted platforms, primarily the Syria crisis.
The nuclear deal conduced Iran’s contributions – to regional crises in particular – to take a more moderate and constructive form. Iran, which was against all diplomatic processes regarding Syria in the pre-2015 period, started following a more constructive policy on Syria with the confidence it gained from the deal. As a result of this policy, it became one of the most important actors of the Astana process started jointly by Russia and Turkey.
In addition to this, it was known that the deal led to serious disturbance in especially Saudi Arabia and Israel. The statements made by both countries showed their displeasure and disappointment with the policies the U.S. followed against Iran. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, in particular, tried to consolidate the local public by talking about bombing Iran whenever he got stuck in domestic politics (for example, when his son’s bribery scandal became known).
Thinking that with the agreement reached with Iran took control of any security problems that may arise in its periphery, EU countries found the opportunity to make a new priority list. At the point reached, it seems that all actors need to re-calculate.
The most fundamental question that comes to mind at this point is the question we asked in the beginning: Do they want close combat? Or, why did the U.S. make such a decision?
It can be said that there are three main reasons behind the Washington’s decision. The first seems to be related to the structure of the international system. After the U.S.’s capacity to direct global politics on its own became quite weak, it became obvious that regional systems would gain strength. In this context, the regional system that emerged in the Middle East and took shape around Russia-Iran and Turkey had to be balanced in some way. In the end, this decision formed an alternative regional system – that shaped around Saudi Arabia-Israel and Egypt – to the regional system that formed around Russia-Iran and Turkey.
The second important reason is drawing the petro-dollars of oil-rich Gulf countries that perceive Iran as a threat to “safe” U.S. banks, and the quest to increase the weapons sales to these countries with the fictitious threat created.
The final matter that needs to be mentioned on this topic is the tensions that arose in transatlantic relations between the U.S. and EU after Donald Trump became U.S. president. Trump thought the Iran deal made it easier for the EU and decreased its need for the U.S. With the decisions taken, the Iran threat returned for EU countries. The return of this threat can be interpreted as the return of the U.S. umbrella to EU countries in a way, or the expansion of its area of influence.
Whatever the reason, it is clear that it will drag our region through an unstable process. The U.S. pushing Iran outside the system for its own interests is unacceptable. Hence, the process must be discussed again at the level of diplomatic negotiations as soon as possible.
