MOVEMENT OF TROOPS
In the past several days, India and Pakistan have appeared to dial down hostilities that brought the arch enemies to the brink of another war. But it's unclear whether the calm will hold.
A Pakistani official in Washington, speaking on the condition of anonymity, cautioned that unless the tensions were reduced, there was a "very strong likelihood" that Pakistani troops would be moved from the border with Afghanistan to reinforce positions near India.
Pakistan’s U.N. Ambassador Maleeha Lodhi told Reuters that Islamabad's focus could completely shift to its eastern border with India.
"If the crisis with India continues, Pakistan will be obliged to keep our entire focus on our Eastern border. That may affect our efforts on our Western front," Lodhi said.
The Pakistani official in Washington said Pakistan had not been focused on Afghanistan since tensions with India increased last month, and it would have implications for peace talks.
Some current and former U.S. officials say Islamabad may be over-stating the risks of fallout on Afghan peace talks, which resumed over the weekend in Doha. Speaking on condition of anonymity, they noted that Islamabad has its own self-interests in mind as it seeks to influence the peace process in neighboring Afghanistan.
But other U.S. officials acknowledge a major crisis involving India would be all-consuming for Islamabad, and say it's another reason why lowering tensions is so important.
In Afghanistan, which fears its country is being used as a proxy for tension between India and Pakistan, the foreign ministry summoned Pakistan's envoy to Kabul after he made similar warnings.
Veteran diplomats say that if the United States pushes Pakistan too hard on combating militants, Islamabad could diminish its support for the peace process.
Dan Feldman, a former U.S. special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, said many of the Pakistani officials who dealt with India were also responsible for Afghanistan, and that tensions could impact peace talks.
He said a lack of U.S. focus on South Asia was problematic.
"We need much more focus and strategic thinking from the Trump Administration on this region, and an effective way of implementing that strategy," Feldman said.
