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Worse coming?: Scientists paint Australia fires as red alert on climate change

News Service
16:06 - 11/01/2020 Cumartesi
Update: 16:15 - 11/01/2020 Cumartesi
REUTERS
A supplied image obtained January 8, 2020 shows Country Fire Authority (CFA) strike teams performing controlled burning west of Corryong, Victoria, Australia, January 7, 2020. Picture taken January 7, 2020. AAP Image/Supplied by State Control Centre Media/News Corp Australia
A supplied image obtained January 8, 2020 shows Country Fire Authority (CFA) strike teams performing controlled burning west of Corryong, Victoria, Australia, January 7, 2020. Picture taken January 7, 2020. AAP Image/Supplied by State Control Centre Media/News Corp Australia

WORSE COMING?

Australia's brutal fire season stems from a confluence of threats, scientists say.

Climate change is generally causing a long-term trend toward hotter and drier conditions, while Abram said shifts in clouds and winds are gradually driving winter rain toward Antarctica.

And, this season, unusual cold in the eastern Indian Ocean has cut off moisture moving to Australia.

All that adds up to an extremely dangerous fire season - but it may not be the "new normal" some have dubbed it, she said.

Not every year will be this bad, Abram said, although future years could possibly be much worse.

This season's runaway fires have occurred at 1.1 degrees Celsius of global warming compared to pre-industrial times.

However, the world is on track for more than 3 degrees of warming, even if current commitments under the Paris Agreement on climate change are met.

"We're on an upward trajectory," Abram said. "How bad is this going to get? How bad are we willing to let it get?"

Perkins-Kirkpatrick's husband, a volunteer firefighter and former army firefighter, said the colour of ash on the ground and dripping aluminium from melted car parts point to higher-than-usual temperatures in this season's fires.

Those, and the rising frequency of bushfires in some areas, could make recovery increasingly difficult for Australia's normally resilient forests, scientists predict.

"I'm sceptical that we will see things return to the way they were," Fontaine said.

Those who argue nature will bounce back because Australia is fire-prone are "overlooking the interaction with climate change", he said.

Some iconic Australian tree and plant species, like banksias with their flower spikes, may be on their way to disappearing as they struggle with more heat, drought and fires, he said.

Wildlife experts also estimate that as many as 30% of the country's koalas could have died in the blazes.

The widespread destruction of this season's fires similarly is expected to have implications for Australia's insurance and tourism industries, as well as for healthcare.

Extended smoke and fire exposure may spur lingering physical and mental health problems, doctors and scientists fear.

But whether those impacts will pressure politicians to take significant action on climate change remains in doubt, they said.

Previous dire warnings about climate change risks to the Great Barrier Reef had not worked, Abram said.

"I hope this (fire) threat affecting such a large proportion of the Australian population will be the catalyst to really take this seriously," she said.

"That could be one of the only positive things that comes out of this experience - if it's that wake-up call to see what climate change looks like."

#Australia
#bushfires
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