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EU braces for Brexit talks collapse as May falters

Ersin Çelik
17:49 - 6/10/2017 Friday
Update: 17:50 - 6/10/2017 Friday
REUTERS
File photo
File photo

CONTINGENCY PLANS

People close to Barnier's negotiating team draw attention to new legislation last month aimed at protecting the EU carbon market from a disorderly British departure and moves to force euro-denominated securities clearing from London to the continent as examples of Brussels' contingency planning.

"It's the responsible approach. And the more it goes on like this," said one EU official of the lack of clear breakthroughs in the talks, "the more we'll see of these steps."

Another senior official said: "There's every reason to be worried and European industry should take this more seriously."

May's Brexit minister, David Davis, is expected back in Brussels on Monday for a fifth round of negotiations with Barnier. But expectations among EU officials are low to nil for a breakthrough on key divorce issues that would allow EU leaders to tell May when they meet her the following week that they are willing to open talks on a future free trade accord.

Aside from uncertainty over how a new EU border with Ireland will work and differences over rights for expatriates after Brexit, a standoff over tens of billions of euros that Brussels argues Britain will owe on departure seems far from resolution.

Describing as "unbelievable arrogance" British offers to pay just 20 billion euros ($23 billion) of a "Brexit bill" which the EU estimates at perhaps 60 billion euros, a senior diplomat from a country Britain generally views as an ally in EU affairs said May would have to face down hardliners who reject such payments.

Few of Britain's negotiating partners see any benefit in a change of prime minister now. That would cost more time that neither side has, since the chances of London or Brussels agreeing to extend the Brexit deadline seem limited.

"With Boris Johnson as prime minister, the negotiations would be easier," one EU diplomat said of the foreign secretary, who has sniped at May's push for a deal that could see Britain stay bound by some EU rules, at least for a transition period.

"We could save ourselves all this analysing," the diplomat said, "As he'd just drive the talks straight off the cliff."

For many, ending with a legal void remains far-fetched.

But though British ministers talk of a "bespoke" deal to exit EU rules while retaining market access, EU officials warn that time is running out for London to find any option other than to agree to something like the status of Norway -- being in the EU market and accepting rules on which is has no vote.

"Pretty soon," said one, "It will be Norway or nothing."

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