Genocides and ongoing Middle Eastern crises, mainly in Syria and Iraq, lead the situation in a deadlock that could trigger a long lasting war across the region, several experts told Yeni Şafak.
Prof. Cengiz Tomar, deputy director of the Middle East Studies Institute at Marmara University, states the ongoing crisis in Mosul and Tal Afar turned the Middle East crisis into a deadlock.
“Mosul is a strategic and a large city. This is the reason for the delay of the Mosul operation. Mosul and Aleppo are the determiners of war in Iraq and Syria. If a massacre is carried out in Mosul, [a Sunni populated city in northern Iraq under the control of Daesh], the region could not be stopped for a long time. But if a balanced and justice administration is established in a post-war period and no ethnic-sectarian cleansing has happened, the city could be a glimmer of hope for the whole region," he said.
Professor Tamer said that the Hashd Shaabi is the radicalized Shi'ite version of Al-Qaeda and Daesh. He also said the proxy wars are driving the Middle East into a deadlock.
“With the support of big powers to regional states, the Middle East turned into a deadlock. An ethnic or sectarian genocide in Tal Afar and Mosul could lead the region into a “Thirty Years' War".
Ufuk Ulutaş, the director of foreign policy researches at the Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), warned that sectarian clashes can evoke Iraq into division.
“There are many [armed] groups in the region. In addition to this, foreign powers increase their presence in the region, which could trigger long-lasting clashes. The most important question today is: who will govern Mosul after clearing up Daesh? It is clear that the insufficiency of the Iraqi military power forced the government to legitimize Hashd Shaabi militia group. This step would trigger genocides in the region."
Associate Professor Dr. Serhat Erkmen from the International Relations at Ahi Evran University said the fault lines in the region would reactivate after the Mosul battle.
“Along with the change of demographic structure, Iraq could be divided in the near future," he added.
Can Acun, a foreign policy expert at SETA, said the Hashd Shaabi, formed by the Shi'ite militia, is full of drifted people. “This group, which has been working as a gang, is more powerful than Iraq's central military forces. It has around 150,000 forces. It was formed as a group conducting terrorist activities and war crimes. It carried out many revenge attacks on Sunni people. The most significant thing is the Baghdad administration has empowered this gang group while the Iraqi military should be reinforced."
“We can observe from the operation in Mosul and Tal Afar that this gang is more effective than the Iraq military. This structure would be increased in upcoming days. Iran would be more influential on Baghdad administration through this group. Hashd Shaabi is no different from Daesh. We are in growing concern that the group could carry out a genocide if it enters Mosul and Tal Afar."
Middle Eastern policy expert Aytun Orhan from the Center for Middle Eastern Strategic Studies also admitted that the major problem would be to determine the next administration of Mosul.
“There are many different actors waiting to govern Mosul after the battle. The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) terror group, yezidi militia forces, Hashd Shaabi and Iraqi army are among these factors. And also foreign powers would be one of the key actors in the city. This could force Mosul to establish federal regions in the city."
“Hashd Shaabi is an umbrella organization, there are so many fractions under this umbrella group and all of them are led by a foreign power. Although the central government tried to bring them under control by a new resolution, the group is out of its control."
“There are extremist, radical elements in the group. It is acting completely on sectarian sentiments. The group is planning a genocide in Mosul. Daesh had carried out a sectarian genocide against Shi'ite people when it entered into Tal Afar and now Hashd Shaabi aims to take revenge by killing Sunnis in the city. If the group enters Tal Afar, around 40,000 Sunni people will face life threat. The developments in the area could trigger sectarian wars in the Middle East."
Dr. Ahmet Kasım Han from Kadir Has University also pointed out probable clashes over governing Mosul in the post-war era.
“The force that clears Mosul from Daesh, would want to govern the city. If Shaabi enters the region, Iranian effects would be increased. And also the Kurdistan Regional Government in northern Iraq has a long-standing plan to establish a Kurdistan Administration even an independent Kurdish state. So the latest development leads the regional factors to bargaining over governing the area that can change the power balance in the region."
