Clashes between Israeli and Iranian forces in Syria could lead to a new conflict, Richard C. Baffa, a senior international/defense researcher at the RAND Corporation and Nathan Vest, a research assistant and Middle East specialist also at RAND Corporation warned.
Israeli Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman on Monday hinted that Israel could strike Iranian targets outside Syria. The Israeli Broadcasting Authority quoted Lieberman as saying: “We aren’t limiting ourselves to Syrian territory. That should be clear. We will fight against all of Iran’s threats, regardless of where it comes from.”
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has previously emphasized that Tel Aviv was against any Iranian presence in Syria. Tehran’s goal to build a lasting military presence in the country has been rejected time and time again by Tel Aviv, which has gone so far as to launch attacks to deter Iran, although these have proven fruitless.
“Past Israeli conflicts, such as the 2006 Hezbollah War, reveal common signposts on Israel's 'road to war,' in which a series of provocations prompted large-scale Israeli operations. Today, Israel's threat perception is much higher, as Tehran seems intent on pressing its perceived advantage in Syria and bolstering Lebanese Hezbollah’s (LH) precision strike capability with advanced weapons and an indigenous production capability,” Baffa and Vest wrote in an article published in late August.
Iran and Hezbollah are strong allies of Syria’s Bashar al-Assad regime, the forces of which have been fighting opposition groups in a deadly civil war since 2011.
Since then, hundreds of thousands of people are believed to have been killed and millions more displaced by the conflict.
“A new war between Israel and LH that directly involves Iranian forces would potentially be far larger in scope and more destructive than the 2006 [Hezbollah] conflict. LH has a more-capable military, battle-hardened from years in Syria, and a rocket and missile force that can strike deep into Israeli territory,” they added.
Baffa and Vest stated that it was in Washington’s best interest to maintain its presence in Syria. This comes as no surprise, as RAND Corporation is known for its links to the U.S. intelligence services.
“Continuing to entertain the possibility of exchanging a withdrawal of U.S. forces for a near-term peace deal and a tentative agreement to limit the Iranian presence in Syria could be a mistake. The United States would be better off reaffirming its presence in Syria and maintaining its hard and soft power efforts to constrain Iran and reduce the risk of another large-scale and disastrous war in the Middle East,” the article concluded.
