As the Russia-Ukraine war is changing the face of Europe, it has put many other countries, including India, between a rock and a hard place.
Held between its largest trade partner, the US, and the largest military supplier, Russia, experts believe that countries like India have been left with no choice, but to wait until the world returns to order.
After the end of the Cold War, India had benefited from global stability and strong ties with both Moscow and Washington.
According to India’s official data, India-US trade last year was $112.626 billion, with $71.203 billion in exports and $41.423 billion in imports, while a report by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) shows that 23% of Russia’s arms exports between 2016 and 2020 headed to India.
India’s bilateral trade during the financial year from April 2020 to March 2021 with Russia amounted to a mere $8.1 billion, but official figures suggest that the military trade since 2018 has touched almost $15 billion.
The military trade is expected to go up further as several other projects are being discussed and many have been implemented.
Besides purchasing a $5.5 billion worth S-400 Triumf missile defense system from Russia, there is long-term cooperation on the licensed production of the Su-30MKI for the Indian Air Force (IAF). Production of the T-90, T-72M1 tanks for the ground forces, and BrahMos cruise missiles are going on at different factories in India. The manufacturers of Russian AK-203 rifles are planning to set up a unit in the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh.
Speaking to Anadolu Agency on the sidelines of a meeting in Dubai – one of the seven sheikhdoms in the United Arab Emirates (UAE) known for luxury shopping and ultramodern architecture – retired Air Vice Marshal Kapil Kak said Russia is militarily very important for India.
- Diversifying military hardware
“As of today, we talk nearly 70% of military hardware of India is of Russian origin, India can be starved militarily in 24 hours. Over the past two decades, India has diversified its military hardware sources, starting with Israel, France, and the US. But Russia still has a large share,” he said.
One of the major concerns in India’s strategic corridors is that the war has brought convergences between Russia and China at a time when Indian and Chinese militaries have been engaged in a standoff over the past 20 months.
However, Kak believes that the bonhomie between Russia and China may not last long as they harbor deep ideological divisions.
“They have historical fissures. They have fought a war in 1969 when both were nuclear (powers). Russia had to field 40 divisions on that frontline. Temporarily, you may see deep convergence between them, but they are prospective competitors in the international system,” he said.
Former IAF deputy chief emphasized that, while New Delhi has become a strategic partner of the US since signing the nuclear pact in 2007, there is a difference between an ally and a partner. He said traditionally and culturally India has sought partners but has not been part of any alliance.
Kak said the Ukraine crisis has brought changes in global order to the front burner.
China has already challenged the US supremacy, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is trying to reassert his country's position in the global system, though Kak believes that he will be unable to do so due to the country's weak economy.
Author and global strategic expert Halford Mackinder wrote in the early 20th century that whoever controls Eurasia – that giant landmass stretching from Europe’s Atlantic coast to Asia Pacific shores – will command the world.
- Consequential changes in world order
Shiv Shankar Menon, India’s former national security adviser, said no country will be able to ignore the consequential changes in the world order brought about by the Russia-Ukraine war.
“More European pressures on Russia will consolidate links between Russia and China and that will change the situation in Asia,” he noted.
He said the coziness of Russia and China may not have an immediate effect as Moscow is the time-tested partner of New Delhi, but in the long run, it may have strategic implications in the face of Beijing’s hostility towards India.
Menon, also India’s former foreign secretary when Russia fought a war in Georgia in 2008, said both Russia and Ukraine as well as Europe need to address each other’s security and strategic interests.
“Eastern borders of Ukraine are 300 kilometers (186 miles) from Moscow. To have NATO troops 300 km from Moscow changes Russia’s security calculus. Put it another way around, Russian troops in Ukraine mean they are at a striking distance from Berlin, Warsaw, Vienna, and many other European capitals,” he explained.
He believes that a neutral Ukraine with security guarantees could be ideal for maintaining regional peace and stability.
“This is not just Putin; every Russian leader has been suspecting of NATO. At the end of the Cold War, there were 19 NATO members, today they are 30. And NATO has been brought to Russia's borders. This is about hard Russian security interests. There are also interests on the other side as well. Both interests need to be accommodated and adjusted,” he added.
The former national security adviser also said the world is in an uncertain and anarchic situation, although the US continues to be a global military power and China competes with it in economics.
“We are a world at drift. We are not in a multi- or bi-polar order. Unless we find order, we will see much more conflict and instability,” he added.
