President Erdoğan gave the first sign.
While answering our questions after the 29 September Republic Day reception, the President said that the US started to question the PYD.
When the President was asked whether the warnings about the PYD changed the view of the US or not, he answered, “ They have started to question things.”
This was followed by the US statement, “ We will stop giving the PYD arms and ammunition.” Foreign Affairs spokesmen Tanju Bilgiç stated that Turkey welcomed the US attitude.
However, a short while before the US made this statement, it was revealed that the US gave 50 tons of arms and ammunition to the PYD. Salih Müslim's challenging attitude, “The weapons have arrived, we can now enter Jarabulus,” confirmed the arms were provided. In this regard, we should remember that Prime Minister Davutoğlu warned, “If these weapons enter Turkey, we will wipe out the PYD.”
After the Prime Minister's statement, Turkey struck at the PYD twice. As the PYD tried to pass the Euphrates and enter Jarabulus, Turkey struck them twice using tank cannons.
I sought to find answers to how these statements reflected on the field. Upon Russia entering Syria, US relations with the PYD started to change.
I should specify that there are some changes in the field.
With Russia entering Syria, relations between the PYD and Russia have started. Russia's relations with the PYD, has pushed the US to be careful with the PYD, and announce that they will not provide arms to the YPG.
After Russia entered Syria, the PYD provided two military zones, Qamishli and al-Hasakah, to the Russians. This was of course actualized with the coordination of the Assad regime, the PYD and Russia. Russia has a big military relaxation base in Qamishli, an area controlled by the PYD. The Russians have formed a military presence in al-Hasakah.
Putin's Middle East delegate Mihail Bogdanov met with Salih Müslim in Paris, and Russia's Ambassador to Ankara, Andrey Karlov met Salih Müslim twice in Moscow. We also know that two PYD directors held official talks, in October, to open an office in Moscow.
PYD converging with Russia has lead to the US taking Turkey's PYD opposition seriously.
For a while now, the US has perceived and marketed the PYD as secular Kurdish forces fighting against the radical terror organization ISIL.
However, PYD is an organization which made use of the power vacuum in Syria caused by the civil war, and in turn cooperated with the Assad regime, ISIL, and the US, finally cooperating with Russia.
On May 28, the Assad regime, PYD and ISIL had a meeting in Al-Hasakah and shared tasks. And from the start of October, ISIL became one of Russia's greatest allies in the region.
After many mistakes the US has made in terms of the PYD, and reviewing its relations with the PYD (upon considering the Russian factor too), how will this reflect on the ground? This is the heart of the matter.
Russia's convergence with the PYD, has disturbed the US.
The US stopping its supply of weapons to the PYD's armed wing, YPG, is an important step in this respect. Yet, there are two situations in which this relationship will be further tested.
1-Ar- Raqqah
2-Jarabulus
A big operation is on its way to Ar-Raqqah, an area in which ISIL earns great income from petrol.
The US wants to use the PYD in its ground offensive in Ar-Raqqah. This is why they were provided with 50 tons of weapons. Delivering the 50 tons to the PYD at once cannot be explained as a clumsy step taken by the US, as this was a very dangerous step.
The Russians on the other hand, are provoking the PYD to start an operation against Jarabulus. Turkey had announced that they regarded Jarabulus as a red line, and if the PYD were to pass to the east of the Euphrates, Turkey would strike. Russia is playing its Jarabulus card partially for this reason. Let us see how the US will play its Ar-Raqqah cards.
Jarabulus is the most important point for us.
I would like to touch upon the Foreign Affairs Minister, Feridun Sinirlioğlu's statement made in Arbil. In his meeting with Barzani on November 5, the Minister said, “ We are planning to act on the ISIL issue in the upcoming days.”
After the Minister's words were perceived as an operation on ISIL, Tanju Bilgiç, the Foreign Affair spokesman said that they did not use the term “ground offensive,” and continued , “ Naturally, whatever decisions are made by the political will, are bound to be implemented. Thus, in the scope of these decisions, all options can be on the agenda.”
The statement made by Minister Sinirlioğlu is correct, and so is the ground offensive correction made by spokesman Tanju Bilgiç.
Diplomacy is the art of dancing with words. An operation is expected to be conducted on ISIL in Jarabulus, in the upcoming days. And this is expected to be a large-scale operation, which has the capacity to wipe ISIL out of Jarabulus.
Turkey has joined operations conducted on ISIL. But things will be different this time. Turkey and the US will conduct a mutual operation on ISIL. We will not participate in the ground offensive. Both the US and Turkey will conduct airstrikes on the organization. The ground offensive will be conducted by the Free Syrian Army, Arab and Turkmen forces. Yet, jihadist organizations will not participate in the ground offensive.
The first objective is to wipe ISIL out of the region.
The second objective is to keep the PYD out of the region, strategically very important for Turkey, that will be recovered from ISIL.
Jarabulus is a strategic region in inner Syria, in which Turkey keeps contacts with the Turkmens and the Arabs. Recovered from ISIL, the region will be protected from PYD, and thus will serve as a buffer zone.
Besides, the US will be working with Arab, Turkmen and Kurdish troops with operational powers, who are not jihadists like ISIL and the PYD.
A big operation is near. But I would like to warn that this operation will be conducted on Jarabulus and ISIL.
