The Biden administration seems to have at least temporarily succeeded in preventing Iran's direct attack on Israel from escalating into an uncontrolled war. The White House conveyed the message to Israel through various channels that any attack on Iran should be 'proportional,' also signaling to the Netanyahu government that US support for Israel would be limited to defense. With the assistance of the United States, the United Kingdom, and Jordan, Iran's UAVs and missiles were intercepted before reaching Israeli airspace, making the job of the Iron Dome relatively easier. However, Iran's low-intensity and controlled attack with low-cost weapons demonstrated that in a more 'real' war, Israel's task would be far from easy. The attack, which brought the urgency of Israel's defense to the forefront, seems to pave the way for a vote on a long-delayed aid package for Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan in the House of Representatives. The fact that American foreign aid could reach the approval stage thanks to the attack on Israel indicates how much the issues that bring Republicans and Democrats together have decreased.
The Package Previously Shelved is Back on the Agenda
A $95 billion aid package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan had previously passed the Senate but had yet to be considered in the House of Representatives due to political dynamics. House Speaker Mike Johnson had refused to consider foreign aid unless strict measures were taken on border security and immigration, as demanded by the far-right and Trumpist factions within the Republican Party. Despite Biden's willingness to compromise on this issue, legal steps could not be taken regarding the refugee crisis at the Mexican border, which Trump constantly highlighted in elections. The Trumpists, who rejected a solution through negotiation with the administration, sought to pressure Biden by demanding the revocation of his executive orders on border and immigration. The uncompromising stance of far-right Republicans made it impossible to take any steps on immigration or foreign aid.
The success of the far-right Republican group in blocking the legislative process and their justification of this under Trump's 'America First' agenda pushed Mike Johnson closer to Trump. Johnson, who represents the extreme right of the Republican Party and is threatened with removal by politicians close to Trump like Marjorie Taylor Greene, visited Trump at his Florida home in an attempt to garner support for foreign aid. Johnson, who received praise from Trump for 'doing a great job,' announced that he would bring the foreign aid package to a vote by the end of this week. Before the attack by Iran came to the agenda, Johnson appeared to be in line with the far-right wing of his party on foreign aid, but he took action despite the risk of being targeted. Of course, the influence of the pro-Israel lobby in Washington is significant, as no political leader in Washington would want to be accused of not supporting Israel's defense.
Netanyahu Wins as He Raises the Stakes
Iran's direct attack, representing a new stage in the regional struggle in the Middle East, showed that Israel would have difficulty defending itself alone in a full-scale war. Although Netanyahu claimed that retaliation against Iran was his decision alone, he did so openly to appear politically strong. It remains to be seen how much Netanyahu will heed Biden administration warnings not to consider defense against Iran a victory and not to engage in a broader war. Netanyahu, who has committed numerous violations of international law, announced that new settlements would be allowed in Gaza. While Netanyahu reserves the 'right to respond' to Iran's attack, he also sends a message that he will not refrain from opening Gaza to settlements, as he did with the West Bank.
Netanyahu, who seems pleased to have shifted the image of Israel from one of ethnic cleansing and genocide in Gaza to that of a 'victim,' is likely to not only escape increasing criticism in the American Congress but also be rewarded with foreign aid. Thanks to Iran's response to its attack on Iranian generals in Syria, which not only changed the agenda but also earned Biden's full support and prompted Republicans to act to pass the foreign aid package. Netanyahu, who is rewarded as he raises the stakes, once again demonstrates his mastery in manipulating American politics. The Biden administration, while not particularly concerned about reducing the Gaza issue to a debate on humanitarian aid flows as opposed to defending Israel against Iran, is not particularly concerned.
Iran's attack on Israel, which mobilized Republicans delaying the foreign aid package, appears to pave the way for Biden's aid request to Ukraine to be met. The warnings from Ukrainian leader Zelensky that they would lose the war if aid did not arrive and the increased urgency of Israel's defense prompted Congress to act. However, it is a serious handicap for the Biden administration, which claims to have global leadership and to defend its allies, to need a softening of Trumpist opposition. Thanks to the power of the Israeli issue to bring both parties together, this aid package may pass, but it would not be an exaggeration to call the transformation of the Israeli issue into the single unifying factor of American politics a tragedy.
