Turkey holds emergency summit to gauge terror attacks

The National Security Council (MGK) will convene today to discuss what to do concerning the recent escalation in terrorist attacks, following the deaths of 12 soldiers in separate attacks by Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) terrorists in the Şemdinli district of Hakkari on Saturday and in Elazığ on Sunday.

Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Chief of General Staff Gen. İlker Başbuğ, State Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Bülent Arınç, government spokesman Cemil Çiçek, Justice Minister Sadullah Ergin, Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, Interior Minister Beşir Atalay, Defense Minister Vecdi Gönül, Land Forces Commander Gen. Işık Koşaner, Gendarmerie General Commander Gen. Atilla Işık and the undersecretary of the National Intelligence Agency (MİT), Hakan Fidan, will participate in the meeting that is due to start at 10 a.m.

The last meeting on the escalating violence by separatists was held on June 17, when President Abdullah Gül talked to Erdoğan and Başbuğ separately. On the same day, Erdoğan and Başbuğ had a meeting, in which the chief of General Staff briefed the prime minister on Turkey's recent over-the-border operations into northern Iraq. The Şemdinli attack comes three days after an operation into northern Iraq.

Turkey has lost 59 soldiers to separatist violence in the past five months, bringing the topic back to the top of the state's agenda. The General Staff recently submitted a report on the reasons behind the heightened rate of terrorist attacks and what should be done. The report also noted that the terrorists will be staging even more attacks in the coming summer months, a view the General Staff has shared with the public in the past week. General Staff Domestic Security Operations Unit President Gen. Fahri Kır made a statement last week, warning against more attacks, saying that the PKK lost at least 130 people in the past four months, not taking into consideration those who have surrendered.

The Turkish Armed Forces (TSK) is planning to intensify cross-border operations against PKK bases in northern Iraq, which have again started attacks after two years. In 2008, the TSK destroyed PKK camps in northern Iraq's Hakurk, Duhok, Zap and Avashin regions in intensive air strikes. This time the TSK will be focusing on the Kandil Mountains in what is likely to be the greatest cross-border operation conducted by Turkey in the last decade. Diplomatic sources say northern Iraq's regional administration has not reacted in any way to the operations, as the issue was taken up with Massoud Barzani in his last visit to Ankara.

Reasons behind rise in PKK violence

The General Staff recently submitted a report to the Prime Ministry on the recent escalation in terrorist attacks. According to the report, one reason behind the increase could be attributed to the recent developments in the Middle East region. The PKK feels its end is near, due to Iraqi Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani's recent visit to Ankara, which came after the establishment of a tri-lateral mechanism to share intelligence between Iraq, Turkey and the US. The PKK particularly views Barzani's rapprochement with Ankara as the first signs of cooperation between the regional government and Turkey to drive the PKK out of northern Iraq, the military's report says.

A second reason is the difficulty the PKK faces in finding new recruits, as the government's democratization initiative has made this more difficult. One purpose of the escalation in terrorist attacks is to sabotage the government's initiative, announced last summer as part of a plan to minimize terrorism by giving more cultural rights to the country's Kurds. According to the General Staff, the terrorist organization is about to collapse and the recent attacks are a last attempt to stay on its feet. Another reason is the organization's general frustration with fewer and fewer countries supporting it. Intelligence units say the ultimate target of the PKK is to move its terrorist acts to territories outside the eastern and southeastern parts of Turkey.

Although the General Staff has denied allegations that Israel might be behind the attack, terrorism experts do not find this convincing, saying it merits attention that there has been a rise in terrorist attacks exactly at the time when the relations between the two countries are deteriorating.

Head of the International Strategic Research Organization (USAK), Sedat Laçiner, says the PKK has escalated terrorist attacks in hopes of influencing domestic developments, such as the democratic initiative process and the referendum process on a constitutional reform package, to be voted on in a public referendum on Sept. 12. According to Laçiner, the PKK is being used as an instrument by those circles that are uneasy with Turkey's emergence as an influential power in the Middle East region. However, intelligence units in the military make a point of avoiding such topics in their reports.

AK Party Deputy Chairman Dengir Mir Mehmet Fırat also believes that the recent attacks have been orchestrated by groups behind the PKK. He also claims that the attacks are tied to the Sept. 12 referendum. Another expert who agrees is Doğu Ergil, who told Today's Zaman, “If the Constitutional Court annuls the constitutional amendment package, there will be a serious regime crisis. The greatest rival for the Peace and Democracy Party [BDP], and thus indirectly the PKK, is the Justice and Development Party [AK Party]. This is the reason there is an attempt to portray the AK Party government as if it is anti-Kurdish. The more Kurdish sons that die in operations, the higher the resentment against the government will be in the region. This is a common goal for some domestic and foreign forces.”