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Play misty for me

We like elections and if they''re held early, we like them even better. So it''s not surprising to hear from the media pundits or read in the newspapers that early elections are on the horizon. If everything goes according to the predictions of our beloved pundits, we''ll go to the ballots before the end of next year.

Records show that predictions for early elections aren''t made in vain, not in Turkey. Turkey certainly gears up for early elections easily. In all the general elections since 1983, when the military rulers decided to hold them every five years, we''ve always cast our vote every four years. The Parliament we have now is also a product of an election held one year earlier then it was due to be. The next elections, if they''re held as scheduled, will be an exception not the rule.

I believe that this time we''ll go by the book rather than by custom. All the indications clearly show that the ruling Justice and Development (AK) Party has no intention of dissolving Parliament early as general elections before fall 2007 aren''t politically beneficial for it. Since the AK Party has the upper hand with a two-thirds majority in Parliament, and since nobody except the deputies themselves have the power to dissolve Parliament, the likelihood of early general elections is almost nonexistent.

This is the arithmetic of politics. The issue of early elections doesn''t stem from the arithmetic of politics but it does stem from its intricacies. Those who are uncomfortable with the AK Party''s strength in Parliament are trying to end its term abruptly, as early as possible. The issue doesn''t revolve around who will rule Turkey after the general elections but which Parliament elects the next president.

Our president is elected through a parliamentary vote. At the end of the day whoever receives enough votes from the deputies then resides at Cankaya Palace. The presidency is a one-term duty of seven years. It so happens that seven out of 10 of our presidents have had military backgrounds. The presidency is regarded as a position little affected by the public, and presidents are required to act with scant attention to the demands of the electorate -- not to the general public but to the deputies, as their votes elected the president.

When a job is for a fixed-time frame and for one term only, the incumbents don''t feel obliged to listen to the suggestions of others. Once they''re chosen, they feel no urge to go along with their electorate and they may soon become out of touch with reality and the public. Under our Constitution, the president of the republic has a great many responsibilities but not a judicial one. He selects people for high-ranking state positions and has the right to not approve government appointments. President Ahmet Necdet Sezer has been rumored to have not approved some politicians when Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan submitted his Cabinet list.

Asking for early elections, in a sense, is trying to hijack the presidential elections from the AK Party majority in this Parliament. This is the reasoning of the people or institutions in favor of early elections: If the general elections are held as scheduled, in fall 2007, this Parliament, with its overwhelmingly AK Party presence, will elect the next president who will serve seven years, so to stop this from happening they need to do everything in their power to force the government to hold early elections.

It''s obvious that next year, 2006, will be witness to a kind of war between two political factions over the general elections with an eye on who will have the say in determining the next president. It will be a war of wills for both sides.

Do you see any points of compromise between the two sides? I myself do not.

I truly believe the AK Party will never voluntarily dissolve Parliament before this Parliament elects the next president. It''s a must for the AK Party to send somebody to the Cankaya Palace; somebody who would feel a moral attachment to Parliament -- not only because this will elevate the AK Party''s political status in the eyes of its own grassroots but also because the result will ease the difficulties the AK Party faces from President Sezer. The period between the election of the next president by Parliament (in spring 2007) and the scheduled general elections (in fall 2007) is vital to the AK Party and its government.

This is an additional reason to force the government to call for early elections.

The question is obvious: How can the political forces who favor early elections realize their objective, since that objective contradicts the vital interest of the ruling party with a clear majority in Parliament who want to stop this from happening?

This critical question indicates a possible development which we may face in the immediate future: The opposition may create such a misty political atmosphere that the ruling party would find it convenient to call for early elections. One thing is certain: There are tough days ahead.

What we''ve seen lately in the press and the criticisms from unlikely quarters is related to the desire of some segments of our society for early elections. That the AK Party government is callous, stubborn and doesn''t heed the demands of the opposition is a premeditated stance to deal with attacks aimed at forcing early elections. It''s not politics we''re witnessing but a war of attrition.

Who do you think will win?

From The New Anatolian, 6 December 2005

18 yıl önce
Play misty for me
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